Jokowi’s maneuver has potential to strengthen Gibran’s position in 2029

JAKARTA – Executive Director of Aljabar Strategic Indonesia, Arifki Chaniago, assessed that the political movement of the 7th President of the Republic of Indonesia, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), increasingly active in visits to various regions, has the potential to change the calculations of the elite and political parties ahead of the 2029 presidential election.

Because, despite the change in voting design after the elimination of the presidential threshold, figures with strong electoral influence like Jokowi are considered still an important variable in the formulation of national political strategies.

He revealed that Jokowi’s activities cannot be considered a normal program. According to him, every visit and political communication made by Jokowi will always be interpreted as a signal by the party elite, especially in reading the direction of the coalition and the timeliness of the figures towards 2029.

“Jokowi’s movement will be read as a political code by the entire elite. Regardless of the agenda, Jokowi’s political influence remains an important variable in the calculation until 2029,” Arifki said, Sunday, July 12.

He said if Jokowi’s political influence is maintained, Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s negotiating position in various scenarios for the 2029 presidential election could also strengthen.

In this context, Jokowi’s maneuver can have a direct impact on the candidacy map, the coalition configuration and the strategies of the main parties.

This condition forces a number of national figures to quickly gain momentum.

Names such as Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono or AHY, Muhaimin Iskandar or Cak Imin, Zulkifli Hasan or Zulhas, as well as other national figures, are considered to immediately build the public image so as not to be left behind in the political competition leading up to 2029.

“AHY, Cak Imin, Zulhas and other national figures are expected to start gaining momentum. In politics, those who act early usually have a greater opportunity to strengthen public perception,” Arifki added.

He also considers it normal that the PDI Perjuangan is not too comfortable seeing the intensity of Jokowi’s movement.

Because the stronger Jokowi’s political influence, the greater the potential for coalition calculation and the bargaining power of political parties, including when the PDI Perjuangan seeks a strategic position in the scenario of vice presidential candidates in the 2029 presidential election.

“Jokowi’s decision not only strengthens Gibran’s negotiating position, but can also change the political balance. This is why each party will take this situation very seriously,” he continued.

He found that momentum was also beginning to be felt within the government’s coalition parties.

Although formally they still form a coalition, the long-term political interests of each party are beginning to move in different directions and goals.

“They are still one coalition, but the political interests leading to 2029 are starting to be expressed individually. It’s like sleeping in the same bed, but the dreams are different,” he added.

Arifki emphasized that politics is always linked to dynamics, perception and negotiating position.

When a political actor moves and its influence increases, other actors will adjust their strategies so as not to lose place on the map of national protest.

“Therefore, the public will increasingly see the maneuverings of party chairs and national figures as part of the buildup toward the 2029 presidential election,” he said.

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