PML-N-PPP politics beyond AJK polls

PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari (R) meets PML-N President Muhammad Nawaz Sharif at the Punjab House in Islamabad on October 10, 2024. —Facebook/@pml.n.official

With everything ready for the July 27 elections in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, the boycott of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which won the last elections, leaves the “political terrain” open to the two other major parties, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), who are now in the race to form the next government of AJK.

Regardless of the outcome of the poll, which for the first time is being held in four phases, has raised questions about its fairness and impartiality, but its outcome would have an impact beyond AJK.

Electoral politics in AJK has its own dynamics and normally the ruling party in Islamabad has the advantage. Even when indigenous parties like the late Sardar Abdul Qayyum’s Muslim Conference won in the past, they enjoyed the support of Pakistan’s ruling party.

Political observers believe that if more indigenous parties like the Muslim Conference had emerged and the dominant political parties in Pakistan had remained in the background, democracy there would have taken strong roots.

The challenges are enormous, but whichever party wins the July 27 elections or, for that matter, forms the government in AJK will have the daunting task of handling the ongoing protests by the recently outlawed Joint Awami Action Committee, JAC.

The importance of these elections can also be judged from the campaign participation of top leaders of the PML-N and PPP, including former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who, after a long break, seemed active in AJK.

Moreover, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who also led the campaign in Gilgit-Baltistan and got a positive result, is now hoping for a victory here, which the party believes would be a real boost for the PPP. But the AJK PPP has a disadvantage as it has virtually no chance in the 12 ‘Refugee’ seats, as nine of them are in Punjab where the PPP has virtually no vote bank. They are still hoping for two seats in Karachi.

Had the PTI been in the race, the PML-N would not have this advantage as the former also has strong roots in Punjab. Thus, the PTI boycott actually worked in favor of the PML-N.

The PML-N, like the PPP, also knows the importance of these poll results, and it is no wonder that Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz particularly accompanied her father during the campaign.

In his presence, Nawaz had not only announced ‘development projects’ like Metro and Expressway, but had even surprised the party leadership when he asked Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif: If the party takes off in AJK, he would like to be Prime Minister. Even though it was on a lighter tone, it certainly made headlines.

The PTI boycott has given an added advantage to the PML-N, which will almost get a “victory” in 12 refugee seats, and PML-N leader Rana Sanaullah was not entirely wrong when he said, “Our counting starts from 11.” So, the PPP certainly has this disadvantage, and its leaders are well aware of these facts.

The question is why did the PTI boycott these polls? I asked this question to party general secretary Salman Akram Raja.

“Yes, we have decided to boycott the polls as we support the ongoing protest in AJK,” he said, adding that four of its members were in the fray, against whom the party would take action.

The PTI won the latest polls, but after a “regime change”, 26 of the 30 elected members have switched loyalties, and the party fears that history would repeat itself if we had decided to run, he added.

It would be interesting to see to what extent the PTI boycott, ongoing protests and disruption of “internet service” would “affect” voter turnout on polling day.

It would be interesting to see if the AJK Election Commission would announce the result of each phase separately or after the completion of all phases. The party that wins the first phase would surely have an advantage.

Despite the harsh tone used by leaders of both parties during the election campaign, it was generally felt that there was little, if any, chance that either party would end its coalition status in Islamabad for “obvious” reasons.

If PTI had been in the race, these two would not have attacked each other in such a tone. On the contrary, they would have either participated jointly in the vote or formed a coalition government.

Historically, Kashmir has praised executed Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto for his role in resolving the Kashmir issue, but in the post-Benazir Bhutto era, the PPP’s popularity has gradually declined.

The PML-N and the PPP have a long history of “love and hate” relations and are natural adversaries for one simple reason: the birth of the PML-N after the 1985 elections on a non-partisan basis was designed to counter the PPP in Punjab by the former military dictator, General Zia ul Haq.

The top leaders of both parties – Nawaz Sharif and the assassinated Benazir Bhutto – later admitted that they had been used against each other when both were ousted and prevented from contesting the 2002 elections. All this led to the Charter of Democracy (COD) in 2006.

Even though the COD has not been fully implemented, it has certainly set certain parameters for everyone to complete their term, namely the five-year term. Had the COD been fully implemented, Pakistani policy might have been different.

Even though their coalition government could not last in 2008, at least the PPP and PML-N completed their terms for the first time. Their differences would have become even more pronounced if the third force, the PTI, had not appeared in 2013.

PTI became the third option and the kind of support it started receiving brought PML-N and PPP closer together. In 2014, during Imran Khan’s 124-day dharna, which nearly led to the fall of the Nawaz government, the PPP, despite being in opposition, strongly opposed any attempt to derail democracy.

So, as long as the PTI or Imran factor is there, both sides would consider each other “partners” but, in reality, they are adversaries. So there is a good chance that in the post-AJK elections, we may see both the PPP and the PML-N on one page on issues of “mutual interest”.

Coming to the elections, perhaps for the first time, the general elections in Azad and Jammu Kashmir are being held in phases, and if the results of each phase were announced before the entire polling is over, it could surely raise questions about the credibility of the elections in an uncertain and tense atmosphere.

As they say, “politics is the game of possibilities and opportunities”. The PPP and PML-N are natural adversaries, but circumstances have brought them together following the rise of Imran Khan and the PTI. And as the situation stands now, we have to wait and see the post-election scenario of AJK, but its result would definitely have an impact on the post-election politics of both the parties besides the PTI itself.

It is very unlikely that the election campaign results of the PPP and PML-N will lead to a major rift, but their relations and understanding may not remain the same.

The writer is a journalist and analyst for Geo, Jang and The News. He can be reached on X: @MazharAbbsGEO

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