Sports
Michigan State football at Illinois: Scouting report, prediction
Free Press sportswriter Chris Solari looks ahead to Michigan State's final road game of the season at Illinois on Saturday.
Fast facts
Matchup: Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) and Illinois (6-3, 3-3).
Kick-off: 2:30 PM Saturday; Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois
TV/radio: FS1, WJR-AM (760).
Line: Illini with 3.
Availability report
MSU: Out: LS Kaden Schickel (left leg, season), DE Avery Dunn (season, undisclosed), TE Michael Masunas (shoulder, season), OL Kristian Phillips (left leg, season), OL Gavin Broscious (left leg, season), DB Khalil Majeed ( lower body, season), CB Chance Rucker (right arm), DB Dillon Tatum (lower body). Doubtful: CB Charles Brantley (left lower leg), S Malik Spencer (undisclosed), WR Jaron Glover (undisclosed). Probably: QB Aidan Chiles (undisclosed).
Illinois: Out: RB Kaden Feagin (hip surgery, season), WR Ashton Hollins (shoulder surgery, season), TE Cole Rusk (knee, season).
Scouting report
When MSU has the ball: Aidan Chiles' health is the biggest question mark Spartans first game in two weeks. The second-year quarterback left the Nov. 2 loss to Indiana after taking a hard hit on a rollout pass. He did not return and had a wrap on his throwing hand on the sideline according to the Peacock broadcast, but it is unclear if that was the injury that knocked Chiles out of the game. Already playing without starting receiver Jaron Glover, it was more of the same for the MSU offense, a hot start while moving the ball efficiently on the first two drives before everything fizzled out.
The Hoosiers pressured Chiles and backup Tommy Schuster all day for seven sacks, and the run game was smothered as the sacks and blunders of two special teams gave the Spartans the second-worst single-game performance in program history left with minus-36 rushing yards. The Spartans rank 104th in the nation in total offense (345.8 yards) and 109th in rushing yards (117.8), and their 19.8 points per game are 119th among 133 Football Bowl Subdivision- teams.
The Illini, like MSU coming off a bye week, are coming off their worst two defensive games of the season in a 38-9 road loss at No. 1 Oregon, followed by a 25-17 home loss to Minnesota on Nov. 2. Gophers totaled 361 yards, 148 of which were rushing, while the Ducks posted 229 of their 527 yards on the ground. For the season, coach Bret Bielemans' defense is allowing 365.4 total yards (67th nationally) and 154 rushing yards (77th) per game, but Illinois ranks 32nd with just 21.1 points allowed per game.
When Illinois has the ball: Like MSU's offense, injuries remain a concern on defense, especially in the secondary. Cornerback Charles Brantley and safety Malik Spencer both left the Indiana game late in the first half and did not return, with Brantley on crutches on the sideline and wearing a boot after halftime. The Spartans are already without a starting cornerback in Chance Rucker and a key versatile piece in Dillon Tatum, which has opened up late-season opportunities for freshmen Justin Denson and Jaylen Thompson at safety. MSU also lost transfer defenseman Anthony Jones late in the loss to the Hoosiers, but only after his former team scored at will in the final three quarters and posted 385 yards for the game. Despite facing top-6 giants in Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana, the Spartans rank 31st in the FBS with just 323.6 yards per game, but are tied for 64th place with 24.1 points allowed. After starting the season with 15 sacks in the first four games, MSU has had none in the last five. The Spartans hope to correct that against an Illinois offense that has given up 28 sacks on the season and 21 in the last five games, including seven against Penn State, five against Purdue and four apiece in the losses to the Ducks and Gophers. That has hamstrung the Illini offense, which ranks 95th with 356.0 total yards and 91st with 142.4 rushing yards per game. Illinois is averaging 25.9 points, buoyed by a 50-49 overtime home win against Purdue.
Know the enemy
Lucas Airwalker: Quarterback Luke Altmyer is averaging 210.3 passing yards per game with 16 touchdown throws and three interceptions. The 6-2, 205-pound junior and one-and-done Ole ma'am transfer started the season by becoming just the third Big Ten QB in the last 20 years with 10 or more passing touchdowns and no interceptions through four games. (Ohio State's Justin Fields in 2019 and Purdue's Kyle Orton in 2004 are the other two.)
Altmyer missed the final three games last season after suffering a concussion.
Make up soil: The Illini lost running back Kaden Feagin, their leading rusher through five games, after hip surgery last month. Feagin had 67 carries for 307 yards and three touchdowns. In his absence, this meant an expanded role for 6-1, 235-pound junior Josh McCray (71 carries, 330 yards, four touchdowns) and 5-11, 200-pound sophomore Aidan Laughery (53 carries, 287 yards). Altmyer is also a threat to move up, with his 77 rushes producing 148 total yards, the QB has gained 337 before losing yardage on sacks.
Secondary threat: Illini cornerback Xavier Scott is a semifinalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, given annually to the nation's top defensive back, and is a major catalyst at every level. The 5-11, 190-pound junior is tied for fourth in the Big Ten with four interceptions, four pass breakups and seven passes defended.
He has also produced 33 tackles with a sack and a forced fumble, rated with the No. 2 tackle grade among Power Four cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus College and as the No. 14-ranked cornerback in major conferences.
Chris Solari's two cents
Goodbye: The Spartans are coming off their second bye of the season looking for a second win. MSU ended a three-game losing streak with a dominant 32-20 homecoming win over Iowa on Oct. 19, but has since lost two in a row, with a hard-fought 24-17 loss at Michigan before being trounced by the Hoosiers . Coach Jonathan Smith's team needs two more wins in its last three games to earn bowl eligibility for the first time since 2021, with the last two coming in East Lansing. The Spartans have a quick turnaround after facing Illinois next week with a Friday night game against Purdue (8 p.m., Fox), followed by the Nov. 30 regular-season finale against Rutgers.
Bret ball: In his fourth year, coach Bret Bielema has revived Illini football after years of dormancy. Illinois is 24-22 under the former Wisconsin and Iowa coach and has qualified for a bowl game for the second time in his tenure.
MSU won its only meeting against the Bielemas Illini in 2022, a 23-15 road upset in Champaign, with Illinois ranked 15th at the time and in the midst of an eight-win season. He is 3-5 all-time against the Spartans, including his seven seasons with the Badgers.
Prediction
Chiles returns from his injury and teams with freshman receiver Nick Marsh to open up the offense, improving at blocking up front, giving running backs Nate Carter and Kayron Lynch-Adams some of the breathing room they missed against Indiana. The Spartans pass the rush and find the elixir to get more pressure on the Illinis' leaky offensive line, and MSU heads home needing one more win to secure an extra month of football. The choice: MSU 23, Illinois 17.
Contact Chris Solari:[email protected]. Follow him@chrissolari.
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Sources 2/ https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/michigan-state/spartans/2024/11/15/michigan-state-football-illinois-scouting-report-prediction-pick-preview-big-ten/76310214007/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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