Monday Musings – Kraken searches for scores

The Kraken split a pair of games this past week: a solid but not dominant 3-0 win against Nashville and a 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday afternoon. If you had asked me last week if I would be happy with a split in those two games, I would have said yes. However, there's something about that Kings game that leaves me disappointed. It was an excellent benchmark for how good this Kraken team really is, especially after it seemed to turn the corner with a 5-1-0 homestand.

I wouldn't go so far as to say the Kraken played poorly, but they may not be good enough to compete with teams like the Kings in the standings all season. I say this knowing full well that just two weeks ago they defeated the top team in the division, the Vegas Golden Knights. Maybe it's a bit of a recency bias, but Saturday's lackluster performance has me wondering where this team is headed. With four games against weaker opponents this week, we may not have a clearer answer until the Kraken roll through their swing in New York, with a Carolina starter.

Do the Seattle Kraken have a scoring problem?

As the Kraken struggled to generate legitimate scoring chances against the Kings on Saturday, I started to realize that there might be a serious scoring problem that looks eerily similar to last season's team. The Kraken are averaging 2.8 goals per game, which is lower than last season at this point. Over the last ten games they have averaged just 2.3 goals per game, the fourth lowest in the league. The absence of Vince Dunn and now Jordan Eberle certainly doesn't help, but that can't be the only factor dragging down the team's scoring. Let's take a closer look.

Shots and shooting percentage

To better understand the scoring challenges this team faces, we can examine shot volume per game and shooting percentage to determine if it is a volume problem, a quality problem, or both.

It turns out to be a bit of both. The Kraken have one of the lowest shooting percentages in the league and rank third in shots on goal. Of course, not all recordings are the same, so to assess this further we need to take recording quality into account.

Shot quality

To evaluate the recording quality, I analyzed the NaturalStatTrick.com team game logs, focusing on the average number of high, medium and low danger shots per game.

The Kraken rank sixth in high-danger shots per game and second-lowest in medium-danger shots. This mix of lower quality shot attempts likely contributes to their poor shooting percentage. Unfortunately, I don't have any specific suggestions or solutions to generate more risky opportunities, but hopefully the team will figure it out soon.

Other musings

• Expect to hear a lot about the NHL's milestone US Thanksgiving. Historically, about 80 percent of teams in a playoff spot make the playoffs during US Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, that didn't help the Kraken last season, as they were in the playoffs at the time, but didn't make the postseason.
• I love the Thanksgiving week schedule, especially with two home-and-home sets against division rivals.
• Speaking of American Thanksgiving without cheating, five Americans have played for the Seattle Kraken this season. Can you name them?
• The Krakens power play was the worst in the league over the last ten games.

• Like many keyboard coaches on the internet, I think it's time for Shane Wright to return to the lineup.
• Daniel Sprong's 18 minutes, 36 seconds against the Kings was the most ice time he has played in a single game during his 86 appearances for the Kraken.
• The penalty kill has also struggled lately, shooting at 75 percent compared to the league average of 80 percent.
• Following college hockey in the West is a challenge, but have you seen the Arizona States men's hockey team? the leading Denver this weekend in Deventer? Denver had a 21-game winning streak in the series. I always believed that ASU could one day become a college hockey powerhouse.
• World Junior Championship camp schedules should be announced in the first week of December for the tournament starting later that month. The Kraken can invite up to seven players to different camp rosters.
• As many of you know, Joe Thornton's number was retired by the San Jose Sharks this weekend. I've always been a big Jumbo fan. The weekend was filled with great Thornton stories, but none better than his former teammate, Doug Murray. I have always believed that the best way to judge an athlete's character is by his actions when no one is watching. Thanks to Doug for sharing that story.

Player performance

Alexander Wennberg The former Seattle Kraken center has two goals and three assists in his last four games with the San Jose Sharks. This Saturday marks Wennberg's first game back at Climate Pledge Arena.
Joey Daccord Joey is having an excellent season, posting a 4-1-0 record with a .945 save percentage in his last five starts.
Carson Rehkopf The 2023 Kraken second-round draft pick recorded a hat trick this weekend. Expect to see him on Canada's World Junior team.

THAT'S A HATTRICK FOR REHKOPF!@SeattleKraken prospect Carson Rehkopf makes it three Sunday afternoon, all with passes from #NHLDesign Eligible Porter Martone!#OHL | @CHLHockey | #ZeeKraken | @OHLSteelheads pic.twitter.com/pZIFvW4Z7O

— Ontario Hockey League (@OHLHockey) November 24, 2024

Goal of the week

Former Coachella Valley Firebird, Cameron Hughes scored this little beauty for his new team, the Texas Stars.

SAINT MOLY CAMERON HUGHES
What a way to win it in OT for the @TexasStars!!@DeAHL | #AHL #TXStars #TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/CkDWuLgwbx

— FloHockey (@FloHockey) November 24, 2024

The coming week

We circled the schedule this week as soon as it became known, with four division games against two of the weaker teams. It's an excellent opportunity to gain ground in the standings, but neither the Anaheim Ducks nor the San Jose Sharks should be taken lightly. Both teams have been playing better lately, and in the NHL, any team can beat any team on any given night.

Anything less than four out of a possible eight points would be a major disappointment, but the target should be six. It is crucial to collect as many points as possible now, as December features the toughest set of matches the Kraken will face this season.