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Stay one step ahead of earthquakes

 


As technologies continue to improve, earthquake-prone cities will be better prepared. Credit: © Marco Iacobucci Epp, Shutterstock

While accurate earthquake prediction is in the realm of science fiction, early warning systems are a reality. As advances in research and technology make these systems increasingly effective, they are necessary to reduce the human, social, and economic toll of an earthquake.

Destructive earthquakes can strike at any time. While we cannot prevent it from happening, we can ensure that casualties, economic losses and disruption of essential services are minimized.

Building more resilient cities is the key to responding to earthquake disasters. If we have a better idea of ​​when earthquakes will occur, authorities can begin local emergency, evacuation and shelter plans. But unfortunately, this is not the case.

“Because earthquakes happen when faults occur, we know where they occur. The problem is that we don’t know how to predict when an earthquake will strike,” explained Quentin Pelletri, of the Institute for Research in Development (IRD) in France. He works as a researcher in the Gowazur laboratory at the University of Côte d’Azur.

“Successful earthquake prediction must provide the location, time and magnitude of the future event with high accuracy, [something] which cannot be done yet,” added Johannes Schweizer, Principal Geophysical Investigator at NORSAR, an independent research institution specializing in seismology and seismology.

The capabilities of artificial intelligence to improve the accuracy and speed of early warning systems

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems are developing rapidly thanks to advances in computer power and network communications.

EEW systems work by identifying the first signals from an earthquake rupture before the strongest tremor and tsunami reach populated areas. These signals trace the origin of the earthquake and can be recorded seconds before the seismic waves.

One promising early signal recently identified is the fast elastic gravity signal (PEGS), which travels at the speed of light but is a million times smaller than seismic waves and thus often goes undetected.

According to Bletery, artificial intelligence (AI) could play a major role in determining this signal. With the support of the EARLI Project, he’s leading an effort to develop an artificial intelligence algorithm capable of doing just that.

“Our AI system aims to increase the accuracy and speed of early warning systems by enabling them to pick up a very weak signal that precedes even the fastest seismic waves,” said Blettry.

Although still in its early stages, if the project is successful, Bletery says public authorities will have access to almost instant information about the earthquake’s size and location. “This will allow them to take immediate mitigation efforts such as, for example, shutting down infrastructure such as trains and nuclear power plants and moving people to safe areas from earthquakes and tsunamis,” he noted.

Statistical technique to enhance seismic resilience

Another approach to improve seismic resilience and reduce casualties is Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). TURNkey, led by NORSAR, aims to improve the effectiveness of this statistical technique used to study seismic sequences to provide timely warnings.

“OEF can inform us of changing seismic hazards over time, enabling emergency managers and public authorities to prepare for a potentially devastating earthquake,” explained Evan van Beveer, TURNkey Project Manager. “What the OEF cannot do, is provide warnings with a very high level of accuracy.”

In addition to improving existing methods, TURNkey is developing a Predict-Early Warning-Predict Consequences-Response (FWCR) platform to increase the accuracy of earthquake warnings and ensure that all warning-related information is sent to end users in a format that is understandable and useful.

“The platform will anticipate and issue warnings about aftershocks and improve users’ ability to estimate direct and indirect losses,” Van Beveer said.

Better prepared than ever

The platform is currently being tested in six locations across Europe: Bucharest (Romania), the Pyrenees mountain range (France), the towns of Hvrajdi and Husavik (Iceland), the cities of Patras and Egeo (Greece), and the port of Goia. Tauro (southern Italy). It is also being tested in the province of Groningen (Netherlands), which is affected by induced earthquakes – small earthquakes and earthquakes caused by human activity that alter stresses and strains on the Earth’s crust.

Johannes Schweitzer, project coordinator, is confident that the multi-sensor earthquake information system will prove its ability to enable early warning and rapid response. “The TURNkey platform will close the gap between theoretical systems and their practical application in Europe,” Schweitzer noted. “By doing so, it will improve the city’s seismic resilience before, during, and after a devastating earthquake.”

“As these technologies and systems continue to improve, they can reduce the human, social and economic toll from the earthquake,” added Pletree.

Earthquake-prone cities will be better prepared than ever. At the very least, these new systems will give people heads to drop, cover, and hold during an earthquake.

DeepShake uses machine learning to rapidly estimate earthquake shaking intensity Provided by Horizon: European Union Journal of Research and Innovation

Quote: Moving On With Earthquakes (2021, November 3) Retrieved November 4, 2021 from https://phys.org/news/2021-11-earthquakes.html

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