The ongoing earthquake: tectonic shifts in American politics

The protests that followed the death of George Floyd (broadcast internationally thanks to the vigilance of a young Minneapolis citizen with a camera on her phone) became more widespread and sustainable than we had seen before, even in the late 1960s. The protests remained largely peaceful, even with some police repression.

Under the protests we can see some basic transformations, such as the moving plates that cause physical earthquakes.

First, Officer Chauvin’s absolute brutality, knowing that he was on camera, with a crowd ordering him to rest, finally showed the truth of the police brutality that many whites did not want to believe. Two-thirds of Americans believe that Chauvin committed a murder. This includes a large number of governors who usually support the police in such cases.

The band, which believes that Chauvin did not make any mistake, is reduced to a minority of ultra-white nationalists. Even President Trump believed that was a mistake. So the first tectonic shift is a fracture at Trump’s base: nearly 40 percent of the electorate who supported him regardless of what he does or says. Now 30 or 35 percent agree with everyone that what happened in Minneapolis was a mistake. Trump should extend the fault line, saying he regrets what happened to Floyd, while also encouraging hostility to protesters.

The murder of George Floyd brought most of the white educated people to the need to tackle the historical and structural racism that underlies police brutality.

The Chauvin advocates include some police officers and some military personnel who sympathize with white nationalists. We do not know their number, but Trump’s general support between the police and army was strong. It seems that the upper ranks of both the police and army are not involved in this (but we do not know: maybe they are just prudent). However, in recent days it was clear that the High Command of the Armed Forces would resist using Trump as a shock force to control popular protests. Thus, the second tectonic shift witnessed the politicization of military forces and the ranks of the police, along with a serious effort by commanders to resist this politicization. System forces play a political role.

A third tectonic shift takes place in Trump’s opposition. There was tension between the broad African-American base that supported Biden from the start and positioned him in a leadership position in the primary, and between educated urban and suburban white people who supported Bernie Sanders and other candidates while they had less enthusiasm for Biden’s atmosphere. But this crisis has brought these two voters together decisively. Both groups were severely affected by the coronavirus outbreak and were very supportive of corporate closures and social exclusion. Both groups strongly criticized the Trump administration’s response to the outbreak. So they were already on the same page about the virus.

The murder of George Floyd brought most of the white educated people to the need to tackle the historical and structural racism that underlies police brutality. This puts them side by side with African Americans, not only on responses to the virus, but now on responses to racism. Once again, they are highly critical of Trump’s response to the crisis sparked by Floyd’s killing. What was a major split in the Democratic Coalition has been closed. Joe Biden had the wisdom to join and even lead the push to tackle systemic racism.

In short, powers have turned in ways that hurt Trump and help Biden.

At the same time, the presence of white nationalism in the police and army ranks a very real threat to the integrity of our democracy. In the worst case scenario, Trump loses the election but refuses to recognize it, tries to use the army and police to stay in power, and the leaders prevent him. He can then try to reach below the leaders to mobilize his followers in the ranks. This would lead to violent conflict within the army and police. The outcome is difficult to predict, but it will not be good.

Having been a Latin American policy analyst for more than fifty years, I’ve seen this kind of thing happen there. The result is never good.

John Pyler

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