Are Israel and Palestine ready for the next catastrophic earthquake?

Israelis and Palestinians are preparing for a major earthquake on a scale not seen in a century, expected to wreak havoc and kill thousands.

Near the ruins of Beit Shan, the ancient city destroyed by an earthquake, engineer Shammar Baruch thinks about what will happen when the earth shakes again.

“There will be tongues of fire here,” said Baruch, in the modern city of the same name.

“I’m very concerned and I’m doing everything I can now so I can get better.”

The municipality assigned him the task of repairing the city’s infrastructure.

Beit Shan lies on the Dead Sea Fault, where communities have been repeatedly devastated by earthquakes.

The ancient city was flattened in AD 749, the last major earthquake in 1927.

The affected land now stretches between Israel, the Palestinian Territories and Jordan, whose officials have been working on a joint response plan for nearly a decade.

The Palestinian earthquake on July 11, 1927 caused the partial collapse of this mosque and its minaret on the Mount of Olives. Photo: J. Eric and Edith Mattson Picture Collection, Library of Congress

A humanitarian expert who is part of the talks said there were two main scenarios.

If an earthquake of magnitude 6 hits, hundreds of buildings will collapse.

“[We] “There will be 1,000 dead, 10,000 victims and 100,000 displaced,” the expert told The National.

The most affected area will be the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem. Northern Israel, including Beit Shein, will also be targeted, along with Jordanian border towns.

The consequences of a larger earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.5, would be catastrophic.

“Services will collapse completely … inside the West Bank, and the victims will be hundreds of thousands,” the expert said.

100-year earthquake cycle

Authorities are working around the clock to prepare for such an event, warning of the 100-year cycle of major earthquakes in the region.

In Beit Shean, fortified rooms were added to some houses. About 20 residential blocks have been reinforced by about 300 buildings.

About 4,000 people live in those homes, which Mr Baruch said were “built very, very quickly” in the 1960s.

“These buildings are not designed to stand up to a major earthquake,” he said. “These buildings will not last.”

Some of the sand-colored blocks have cracks crawling on their sides.

The municipality has an ambitious plan to strengthen more buildings and build new neighborhoods that can withstand earthquakes.

The necessary funds are expected to come from a future investment in Beit Shean related to a project linking the Israeli railway network to the nearby Jordanian border.

“I can’t swap out the infrastructure and build a new one with the money I don’t have right now,” Baruch said, estimating that the city will be better prepared in five to eight years.

If the earthquake strikes now, the engineer said there is little he can do other than “widen the cemetery.”

The Palestinian village of Azmut, east of the city of Nablus in the occupied West Bank, with the Israeli settlement of Elon Moreh in the background. France Press agency

This year, Israel sounded the earthquake sirens, which warn residents seconds before the tremor occurs.

The government has also implemented plans to demolish and rebuild earthquake-resistant apartment buildings in some parts of the country.

Its national emergency portal warns: “A strong earthquake is expected in Israel that could lead to a mass catastrophe with thousands of dead and injured.”

Palestinians in the West Bank will be hardest hit due to their proximity to the epicenter and their limited ability to cope.

Part of the challenge is the Palestinians’ lack of autonomy, said Jalal Dabeek, director of the Center for Urban Planning and Disaster Reduction in Nablus, a city in the northern West Bank.

“Where can you build?”

The West Bank was divided into different areas under the peace agreements of the 1990s. The Palestinian Authority controls the cities, while Israel fully controls 60 percent of the West Bank.

This hindered the ability of Palestinians to expand their cities as the population grew, or to create new neighborhoods.

“Where can you build? You need land to subdivide for urban planning, infrastructure and roads,” Mr. Dubek said.

“There is no land, which is why they want to build 10 levels in the mountain region.”

Within sight of the Academic Center at An-Najah University, dozens of high-rise apartment buildings dot the mountains around Nablus.

Drawing his calculations on paper, Mr. Dubek estimated that about 5,000 apartments in Nablus would collapse in a major earthquake.

Our civil defense can deal with two or three buildings [collapsing] in every city. But we are talking about thousands of buildings.

Palestinian refugee camps, such as those in Nablus and Bethlehem, are particularly vulnerable due to cramped conditions.

The debris of a single building can block an entire narrow street, delaying or preventing rescuers from reaching any survivor.

One area of ​​greatest concern is Kafr Aqab, a neighborhood north of Jerusalem that is under Israeli rule on paper. But it is located behind the concrete wall that Israel erected around the West Bank.

“All Palestinian institutions do not have the capacity or the power to control the region,” said Mr. Dubeik.

Dozens of high-rise apartment buildings have been built without enforcement of building regulations by Palestinian or Israeli officials.

“It’s going to be very, very difficult” when the earthquake hits, Mr. Dubek said.

The Jerusalem municipality, which is run by Israeli officials, told The National that Kafr Aqab had been included in the earthquake response plan.

Seismic waves on a computer screen at the Israel Geological Survey in Jerusalem during a demonstration of a new earthquake early-warning system that will siren if a national network of 120 seismic monitoring stations detects a strong earthquake. Reuters

Kafr Aqab stands next to an abandoned airport in a reminder that Palestinians do not control the airspace.

Part of the tripartite talks is dedicated to managing how international rescuers are able to cross the borders controlled by Jordan and Israel.

The humanitarian response expert said issues include how Israel deals with crews arriving at Tel Aviv airport.

“Dedicated services; how they will handle the items. If they are going to give visas to international teams,” both are under discussion, he said.

After meetings in Cyprus, Israel, Jordan and the West Bank, the three parties are scheduled to hold training exercises this year and in 2023.

If the earthquake strikes before then, they will have to rely on national disaster plans and existing lines of communication.

“We will try to adapt and work together,” the humanitarian worker said.

“[An] An earthquake is not an ordinary crisis. Even with preparation, it would be heavy.”

Updated date: June 13, 2022 at 3:48 am

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