Perception of danger | natural earth sciences

A limited number of earthquakes and volcanoes, mainly located in the countries of the Global North, dominate the output of collective research on these geographical hazards. Efforts to improve monitoring at the local and global levels can address this disparity and reduce the risks associated with it.

Nature Geoscience has published nearly 300 papers on earthquakes and volcanoes since its launch in 2008, and they represent only a small portion of the published research relating to these geographic hazards. While much of our understanding comes from direct observations of recent and ongoing events, data from events decades ago still produces publications. Some earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, particularly in the countries of the Global North, produce more publications than others for a range of reasons unrelated to the scientific potential of these events, including funding, access, and coverage, as well as editorial and societal bias. Recent and ongoing efforts to expand monitoring of these geographic risks can address this geographic shortfall.

To better understand the imbalance in geohazard research output, we used the Web of Science database to count the number of publications over the past 20 years resulting from a selection of 10 major earthquakes and active volcanic systems (Fig. 1). Recognizing that our choice of events and systems may bias the results, we nonetheless see that some events dominate the publications, notably the 2008 Wenchuan and 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake.

Figure 1: Selected publications on earthquakes and volcanoes over the past 20 years.

Pie charts showing the distribution of research articles between 2001-2021 for ten earthquakes (A) and volcanoes (B). The selected examples represent the destructive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions known from around the world, all of which have been active in the past 20 years. A total of 7,641 earthquakes and 4,450 volcano articles were represented. m, earthquake strength; Fifth, the volcanic eruption of the largest volcanic eruption in the past 20 years.

Volcanoes seem to generate fewer total posts than earthquakes, but some individual systems, such as Kilueaua, Mount St Helens, and Stromboli, have a relatively large number of posts. There is no clear relationship between the number of postings and the magnitude of the most recent earthquake or volcanic eruption; Instead, the most publicized events occurred in countries with some of the highest investments in hardware coverage and research, such as the United States, China, and Japan. For example, the Tohoku research took advantage of Japan’s high-quality and dense seismic network, while Kiliwa and Mount St. Helens dedicated volcanic observatories.

By contrast, more than 50% of active volcanoes in Latin America are not censored1 and related publications are relatively few despite the risks. Similarly, the 2010 Maule mega earthquake in Chile was close in magnitude to the Sumatra and Tohoku events, but occurred before recent expansions of seismic station coverage in the country. Less studied events are not necessarily less valuable in terms of the scientific insights they can provide; More data and research could reveal important triggers and risks.

Globally distributed Earth observation systems have the potential to help address this geographic disparity by providing data in more isolated or unmonitored areas. For example, the International Monitoring System has provided extensive infrasound, seismic, and other data on the recent eruption of the Tonga volcano 2. Galleto and colleagues, in this issue, demonstrate how improvements over the past few decades in satellite observations of the Earth’s deformation accompanying the eruption can be used to predict the eruption. , along with thermal and SO2 telemetry measurements.

There are also emerging low-cost technologies that can help with local monitoring efforts. The proliferation of high-quality photographic equipment, smartphones, and drones has made monitoring volcanoes more accessible 3 , creating possibilities for new citizen, science and crowdsourcing initiatives. Smartphone sensors have also been used as part of earthquake early warning systems4. Collaboration between national and international partners is of particular importance, as evidenced by recent efforts by Latin American countries to increase the number of monitored volcanoes through the exchange of resources, data and expertise1.

Ongoing research into earthquakes and volcanic eruptions continues to provide insights into the underlying processes and risks arising from these events. The continued expansion of monitoring and collaboration networks into regions under-represented in the scientific literature, particularly in the Global South, is critical to forecasting and risk mitigation efforts.

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Perception of danger. nat. Geosci. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00994-3

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