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Disaster Transport Recovery: a

Disaster Transport Recovery: a


Transportation systems play an important role in maintaining supply chains for effective disaster recovery. The March 2020 COVID-19 shutdown coincided with a 5.7 magnitude earthquake in Salt Lake City, Utah, causing supply chain disruptions across the region. A team of researchers collaborated with local agencies and transportation organizations to use this event and community response to assess the challenges faced by local business owners and the actions they took to manage the disruptions. Their new report assesses the potential economic impacts of a catastrophic earthquake in the Salt Lake City area, with a focus on helping small and medium-sized businesses increase their resilience.

Funded by the National Institute for Transportation and Communities (NITC), Divya Chandrasekhar and Sua Kim of the University of Utah (UU) Department of Town and Capital Planning worked with John Downen and Joshua Spelsdoff of the Kim C. Gardner Institute for Policy at UU to survey local businesses on post-disaster recovery actions in March 2020 The researchers noted that with increased awareness of the risks among companies, the events of March 2020 did not translate into concrete preparedness or mitigating measures. Based on the findings of this research, the authors suggest the following actions to build future economic resilience along the Wasatch Front:

Increase pre-disaster investment in resilient transportation infrastructure to reduce the cost of eventual recovery; Improving business resilience practices for high-impact industrial sectors, through education and outreach; Identify structural barriers to the adoption of resilient business practices, and promote mitigation through recovery. Integrate disaster resilience into economic development by breaking the silo approach to emergency management and economic development.

Breaking down the silos is key. The primary focus of this project has been on developing partnerships between the university, the community, transportation organizations and policy entities in the region. Partners in this project include the Utah Department of Emergency Management, the Wasatch Front Regional Council, the Utah Inland Port Authority, and the University of Utah.

Why this research?

“The genesis of this project was a conversation I had with some of my FEMA colleagues in District 8 a few years ago, who were wondering how to do more research on logistics that would help them with planning. And the big question was, how are supply chains affected when it is We have this big earthquake?” Chandrasekhar said.

According to the Utah Seismic Safety Commission, the Salt Lake City portion of the Wasatch Fault has lagged behind the “Big One” (M7.0 seismic event) which last occurred 1,400 years ago. In the aftermath of an earthquake of this magnitude, the Wasatch Front is likely to experience $33 billion in short-term economic loss, including $24.9 billion in direct (capital) losses related to buildings, $6.9 billion in income loss, and $1.4 billion in lifeline Loss related to transportation facilities.

Modeling the potential economic impact of transportation-related disruptions is an important step for promoting pre-event community-wide recovery and resilience planning. However, current supply chain and economic impact models are too costly and complex to be used by public sector entities with limited resources. That’s why the UU team focused their efforts on small and medium enterprises, helping to increase our understanding of how these enterprises adapt to post-disaster transportation disruption and what they can do to prepare for similar events.

Apart from expanding our knowledge about small business resilience in the face of disasters, this study also develops an affordable analytical framework for planners and policy makers in high-risk regions to use, to make data-driven decisions about transportation and economic resilience planning.

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In the first phase of the project, the team combined results from three commonly used models (Hazus, Wasatch Front Travel Demand Model, and REMI PI+) to identify industrial sectors expected to be most affected by transportation loss in the M7.0 earthquake scenario. They found that nearly 70% of the Wasatch regional economy falls in some of the hardest-hit sectors. Next, they estimated travel delays, damage to roads and bridges, and other potential impacts on the regional economy. Detailed results from each analysis are available in Chapter 2 of the Final Report.

In phase two, the team surveyed 130 Salt Lake City businesses among the 10 hardest-hit industrial sectors identified in phase one to understand how they are currently dealing with supply disruptions due to COVID-19, and their preparedness for future earthquakes. Companies have reported a significant impact on supply chain management and production cost due to disasters. Companies in Utah have taken a range of measures to manage these disruptions, including adjusting capital expenditures and diversifying suppliers in and out of the city. While the disaster experience has increased awareness and confidence in preparing for the future, most companies report taking little concrete action in terms of mitigation and preparedness.

What can local businesses do?

Chandrasekhar outlined several actions SMEs can take to mitigate future disasters. She says knowing the risk and exposure to hazards is important, as is knowing the condition of your building. For example, many buildings in Utah contain unsupported masonry, which poses a severe hazard.

Other measures include obtaining business interruption insurance; the existence of a disaster plan (for example, a data recovery plan in case of digital data loss); And being aware of your supply chain: knowing where your goods come from and what can affect their travel. Chandrasekhar also advises businesses to take advantage of the resources that local and state agencies can provide. For example, the Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunities and the Be Ready Utah Initiative provide assistance with disaster business continuity planning, an opportunity that many business owners may not be aware of.

The study highlights the need for high-risk communities to identify industrial sectors at risk and conduct targeted disaster management awareness raising in these sectors. For a more detailed overview of the results, watch a taped webinar on July 22 with the principal investigator, Dr. Divya Chandrasekhar of UU.

This research was funded by the National Institute of Transportation and Communities, with additional support from the Utah Department of Emergency Management and the Utah Inland Port Authority.

About the project

Estimating the economic impacts of transportation-related supply chain disruptions in a post-earthquake environment

Divya Chandrasekhar, University of Utah

Related research

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The National Institute on Transportation and Communities (NITC) is one of seven national college transportation hubs affiliated with the U.S. Department of Transportation. NITC is a program of the Transportation Research and Education Center (TREC) at Portland State University. The PSU-led research partnership also includes the Oregon Institute of Technology, the University of Arizona, the University of Oregon, the University of Texas at Arlington, and the University of Utah. We pursue our theme – improving the mobility of people and goods to build strong societies – through research, education and technology transfer.

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