Portland students and residents prepare for Great ShakeOut training

Experts say the Pacific Northwest has a 10-15% chance of a major earthquake in the next 50 years.

PORTLAND, Oregon – It started as a regular Thursday morning at Lincoln High School in southwest Portland for senior Sarah Kane.

Then, shortly after 9:45 a.m., a voice came over the loudspeaker and her teacher instructed all the students to “duck, cover up, and wait.”

Kane’s entire class, some laughing as they do so, scrambled under the seats and waited while the Great Lean Drill, an annual seismic drill, ran its course.

“It was definitely a bit chaotic,” Kane said after the rehearsals, noting that being in a new building was more reassuring. Lincoln HIgh School has just been rebuilt with the doors opened to students earlier this year.

“I remember in the last building, I felt like if I went under my desk it would have crashed anyway even if there was no earthquake,” she said.

Related: Lewis & Clark College is creating a video game that helps people prepare for earthquakes

Thousands of Oregonians and many more around the world have signed up to participate in the annual exercise. The exercises are meant to remind people that while a big earthquake may not be high on everyone’s list, it is something we should all be prepared for.

Chris Goldfinger, a marine geologist and professor at Oregon State University, said the Cascadia subduction zone, the 600-mile fault stretching from northern California to British Columbia, has produced 20 major earthquakes over the past 10,000 years.

Related: OSU Research uses 3D modeling to analyze earthquake hazards

“Those are 9 degrees, the so-called larges, so that gives us a 10-15% chance in the next 50 years,” Goldfinger said.

An earthquake of this magnitude could cause a devastating tsunami on the coast, Goldfinger said, but in Portland, the biggest concern is unsupported buildings, of which nearly 1,600 are within city limits.

“These structures are really fragile,” he said, adding that the Cascadia earthquake can produce strong shaking for three to five minutes. “They don’t have the ability to withstand earthquake loads at all.”

Related: Why a disaster kit will help you survive the next earthquake

Students at Lincoln High School should feel relatively comfortable if this type of earthquake occurred while they were in school, according to David Mayne, director of communications for the Portland Public Schools Bond Program.

The school is brand new and built to some strict specifications.

“Lincoln is our newest high school. It is our newest school,” Maine said. “Part of the building is designated emergency level 4 which is like hospitals, police stations, and fire stations. After a big event, it is a place where students can gather and occupy the building safely.”

Maine said Lincoln is one of 13 schools in the area that have been completely modernized or completely rebuilt to withstand a major earthquake.

Many other schools received gradual promotions. The area, however, remains to be done.

“Most of the PPS schools were built before World War II, so they are very old. They were built before the time when major seismic events were known here,” Mayne said. “They are beautiful old buildings but not modern for our times and the world we live in now. So it is really important that we continue to upgrade these schools.”

Related: 4.4-magnitude earthquake detected in Lin County

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