Not a myth after all: farm animals may be key to earthquake forecasting

A study aimed at solving the ancient mystery shows that animals exhibit strange behavior up to 20 hours before an earthquake strikes.

RADOLFZELL, Germany – According to storytelling, farm and pet animals often behave abnormally in the hours leading up to earthquakes. However, these findings were not supported by scientific evidence. At least not yet.

A new study by German scientists provides scientific evidence to support allegations of strange animals ’behavior before earthquakes. Research suggests that animals may indeed provide valuable clues as to when and where earthquakes will occur.

Track the movements of animals before earthquakes

In the study, researchers attached motion tracking devices to farm animals in an earthquake-prone region in northern Italy. These track devices, known as accelerometers, are attached to hoops of six cows, five sheep, and two dogs. All animals were previously observed to behave abnormally before earthquakes.

After accelerometers are attached, researchers record animal movements for several months. During that period, approximately 18,000 earthquakes were reported in the region. Many of these earthquakes were weak and barely noticeable, but 12 of them were strong (4 or higher on the Richter scale).

The researchers chose to look only at the earthquakes that caused statistically significant ground movements on the farm. The foci of these earthquakes ranged in the distance from the farm. Some were very close, while others were 28 kilometers (17.4 mi) away.

Statistical models based on financial econometrics were used to analyze recorded data from accelerometers (i.e. body acceleration data). Using this data and tagging periods of unusual activity using statistical criteria, researchers were able to objectively determine what constituted “strange” animal behavior.

“Since each animal interacts differently in size, speed, and according to species, animal data is similar to that of heterogeneous financial investors,” co-author Winfred Buhlmeyer said in a press release. Pohlmeier is Professor of Econometrics at the University of Konstanz, and principal investigator at the Center for Advanced Study of Group Behavior.

Proximity to earthquakes matter

Already unusual animal activity patterns were recorded among farm animals up to 20 hours before earthquakes. Moreover, strange behaviors depended on how close the animals were to the epicenter.

“The closer the animals are to the center of impending trauma, the sooner they will change their behavior. This is exactly what you expect when physical changes occur frequently at the center of an impending earthquake and become weaker with increasing distance,” says Martin Wickelsky, director of the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior. He is also a principal investigator at the Center for Advanced Study of Group Behavior.

Interestingly, this effect was only evident when researchers looked at all animals, not just individuals. “Collectively, animals seem to exhibit unrecognizable capabilities on an individual level,” says Wickelski.

The mystery behind the behavior remains

It remains unclear what triggers unusual behavior in animals before earthquakes occur. One possibility is that animals are able to feel the ionization of the air caused by major changes in rock pressures with the fur. Alternatively, animals may be able to smell gases emitted from quartz crystals before earthquakes.

No matter how animals feel about impending earthquakes, these results are promising for future forecasts. In December 2019, researchers tested the predictive capabilities of animal accelerometer data and were already able to predict an earthquake.

Before using this method to reliably predict earthquakes, researchers need to record data from more animals over longer periods of time in different regions around the world. To do this, researchers want to use the global animal monitoring system known as Icarus. Icarus is a joint project funded and implemented by the German Space Center (DLR) and the Russian Space Agency Roscosmos and supported by the European Space Agency (ESA).

The study was published in Ethics.

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