In 1981, scientists expected an earthquake like the one that rocked the Alaskan peninsula this week

Late on Tuesday, seismologist Michael West heard a text alert. His phone informed him of a large earthquake under the ocean, south of the Alaska Peninsula, about 60 miles southeast of Sand Point Village.

His first idea was that this – the largest earthquake on the planet so far in 2020 – would result in a devastating tsunami. His second thought was that the puzzle of the protracted earthquake may have been solved.

For the convenience of the West, the 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 10:12 pm in Alaska did not cause a devastating tsunami. Among the highest recorded reports of the event were reports of 6-inch waves at Sand Point beaches.

West and his colleagues at the University of Alaska’s Geophysical Institute were still overwhelmed with data one day after the event. But he was quick to point to a science paper written by Alaska’s first seismologist, John Davies, in 1981.

All recent major earthquakes in the partial subduction zone, including its magnitude 7.8 in the “Schomagin Gap” that occurred on July 21, 2020. (Courtesy of the Alaska Seismic Center)

Meanwhile, Davis and his colleagues suggested a “seismic gap” south of Sand Point. And they wrote there, there was a patch of one of the largest subduction zones in the world that had not been torn in a long time. Perhaps it was because of.

Davis predicted his predictions after field campaigns in the 1970s, during which he and his colleagues installed seismometers near Popov Island, on which Sand Point village is located (population 1140).

“From 1938 to 1965, almost the entire subduction zone was torn,” said West. “There were just two places that were torn apart – one in the Yakutat region and the other in the Shomagin Islands (where the July 21 earthquake occurred).

“Here, you have the 1981 paper that says you tore everything apart from these sections, and here you should expect the next big earthquake.”

West said the earthquakes in the subduction zone are the largest and most destructive on Earth, citing the Good Friday earthquakes of 1964 and the Tohoku earthquakes in 2011 as examples. He described the invasion area of ​​Elliott, responsible for the existence of the Elliott Islands, as follows:

He said, “The Pacific Plate heads north a few inches every year to the strongest North American plate.” This forces the Pacific Panel to slide under Alaska. Major earthquakes occur at the border as these two plates rub together.

John Davies, who wrote the paper predicting an earthquake like the one that occurred Tuesday evening, was elected to the Alaska state legislature in 1993. He then had to resign from his position at the Geophysical Institute, where he was like the state seismologist.

Davis’s doctoral work, performed in Skwentna, Alaska, helped prove the modern theory of plate tectonics, as scholars such as his mentor David Stone argued that the Earth’s crust is made up of massive masses scrambling together. Davis showed that the Pacific plate was already plunging deep under anchorage, and almost reached Denali.

After switching to politics, Davis never returned to seismology.

On the day after the 2020 earthquake, he and his wife, Linda Chandelmeier, were making kimchi from the Napa cabbage, which they had picked up from their garden in Fairbanks.

Davis, who was reached on the phone, said he was glad to hear his decades-long search had suddenly related.

“It would be really fun if it turned out to be true,” Davis said.

West said that the shadow of the aftershocks caused by the earthquake was enough for him to believe that a large portion of Schumagen-Gap had been torn apart, and maybe not just a quirky section slipping quietly without major earthquakes.

Davies, who, as a government seismologist, was required to find areas most vulnerable to earthquakes and provide advice on building codes and tsunami warning, said the large earthquakes reminded him somewhat of current times.

He said: “Earthquakes resemble viruses, the largest of which comes once in a lifetime, if not at all.” “We have these dangers that happen with this long period between them. It is difficult to attract people attention.”

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