Huge earthquake: Whakatane residents could have just 25 minutes to escape the tsunami

Dr Mawira Karitai, a local researcher at GNS, says Whakatane needs to prepare for a strong earthquake and resulting tsunami similar in size and strength to Japan's 2011 event.

She has planned a series of workshops with GNS seismologists next month because she feels most people in the city are “woefully unprepared” for an earthquake.

Scientists studying the Hikurangi subduction zone, off the east coast of the North Island, expect a major earthquake to occur in the next 50 years, with a one in four chance of it measuring 9.1.

“When we get hit by a magnitude 9 earthquake, the road network will completely fail. We have to prepare for infrastructure damage, liquefaction, fresh water springing from broken pipes and raw sewage,” she said.

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“This area will be completely isolated. All resources will go to the cities.”

She pointed to a 4.5 magnitude earthquake off Te Araroa on April 17, which she said “blew up on social media”.

“What we expect to be 36,000 times stronger than that. We're looking at potentially intense shaking for three to four minutes. There's not much left at the end of that.”

The Hikurangi subduction zone is where the Pacific plate sinks beneath the Australian plate on the east coast of the North Island. Photos/East Coast Labs

She added that people should not rely on the road network to escape the resulting tsunami waves, which reach a height of up to 10 meters and can arrive within 25 minutes.

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“Also, be very aware that our cliff is rotten rock. It falls if we get a rainstorm. So, we need to find multiple ways to get up the hill, not just rely on the road.

Karitai has arranged a series of four workshops in Whakatane in the last week of June.

Te Whare Wānanga o Awanuiārangi will host the events, in collaboration with GNS Science and Whakatāne High School, over three days. The first, Earthquake Day, is dedicated to community leaders from organizations such as councils, schools, police and health care agencies.

“This will speak to all the different faults that are at risk for us at the moment, including the subduction zone that we sit on,” Dr Karitai said.

“Everyone who comes to earthquake day should leave with an action plan on how to support their employees and their community to stay safe.”

Dr Karitai spoke at Whakatane District Council's long-term plan hearings last month about how disturbed she was that the council had no action plan to evacuate Whakatane township following the 2021 tsunami warning in which many people jumped into their cars, creating chaos. traffic jam.

She said she felt, after conversations with some council members, that they did not take the risk seriously.

A council spokesperson told Local Democracy Reports that Dr Karitai's concerns had been noted and that the council was committed to working with the community and key partner agencies to enhance community awareness and understanding of disaster education.

In October last year, it updated public tsunami evacuation information, delivering 7,000 leaflets to properties in coastal flood zones.

Initial work has begun on a multi-agency project focusing on developing new evacuation processes and procedures to address tsunami and flood risks. It is also developing Civil Defense Centers throughout the region to provide emergency resources to support the community after a natural hazard event.

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The Earthquake Day event came about as a result of Dr Karitai's work with GNS scientists over the past year on a research project entitled 'Our Changing Coast', funded through the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment Endeavor Fund.

The project looks at factors such as vertical land movement and the impact of sea level rise on coastal communities.

Dr. Mawira Karitai and her son Jack Karitai-Barrett have everything they need to survive a natural disaster stored in backpacks at the entrance to their home and in their car. Photography: Diane McCarthy

As a psychologist with a master's degree in environmental management, Dr. Karitai was asked to investigate the impacts on young people living in coastal communities across the country.

“The work just evolved from there,” Dr. Karitai said.

“We're looking at what matters to rangitahi now, where they're getting their information from and how they can know it's reliable information. This is important because there's a lot of misinformation out there.

“A lot of their anxiety comes from not knowing where to go for real information and how to know if they can trust it.”

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Earthquake Day is scheduled to be observed on June 25, with an “Our Changing Coast” workshop for youth on June 26, and for adults on June 27. A lecture by GNS lead scientist Richard Levy and Earth scientist Tim Naish on June 26 will discuss sea level rise and its recent impacts. Trip to Antarctica.

Based on the success of the workshop, they hope to roll it out to all coastal areas of New Zealand.

– LDR is a local journalism organization jointly funded by RNZ and NZ On Air.

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