More earthquakes due to global warming: GFZ

Sea level rise increases stress on tectonic faults and causes changes in their seismic cycles – leading to an increased number of earthquakes especially in coastal areas of the world.

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Global warming will lead to more and in some cases stronger earthquakes around the world. That's the assessment made by researchers from the German Research Center for Geosciences GFZ in Potsdam and the University of Southern California in a study published today in the journal Seismological Research Letters. Researchers state that the reason for this development is the gradual rise in global sea levels and frequent strong storms due to man-made climate change. The indisputable sea level rise and accelerating process is updated annually by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A further contribution will come from increased intensity of extreme weather events such as storms. Both of these factors increase hydrostatic pressure in the subsurface leading to changes in seismic cycles – with an increased risk of earthquakes and cascading effects such as landslides, tsunamis and liquefaction, especially in coastal regions of the world.

Background: Origin of earthquakes

Earthquakes are caused by sudden movement of rock masses. This releases energy in the form of seismic waves, which build up over long periods of time due to the constant movement of tectonic plates. This loading process continues until the strength of the rock is exceeded and the opposite sides of the fault slip in the earthquake. The loading process then begins again, forming a recurring cycle of charging and discharging on faults. This is called the seismic cycle. Depending on geological conditions, this can last for years, decades or centuries.

Impact of human-made climate change

As a result of human-caused global warming, the melting of land ice, especially in Antarctica and Greenland, is an accelerating process, and sea levels are rising around the world. While the rate between 1901 and 1990 was 1.4 mm per year, between 1970 and 2015 it was actually 2.1, and between 2006 and 2015 it reached 3.6. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2023 report, sea levels will rise by an average of 0.43 to 0.84 meters by 2100 compared to the period from 1986 to 2000. If all land ice melts, experts expect a rise of about 70 meters in the long term. the long. Reaching this extreme scenario depends largely on more greenhouse gas emissions. In any case, even with strict reductions in carbon dioxide levels, the effects described above will persist for centuries. At the same time, extreme weather events such as severe storms are becoming more frequent and stronger.

Increased risk of earthquakes

Both phenomena also have an impact on earthquake hazard because they lead to a small but noticeable increase in stress on tectonic faults in the subsurface due to hydrostatic loading. This affects earthquake cycles in all places of the world covered by sea water. Moreover, coastal areas also become more vulnerable to the cascading effects of earthquakes including landslides, tsunamis and liquefaction.

“Sea level fluctuations of only a few decimeters are enough to cause earthquakes,” says Professor Marco Bonhof, head of the GFZ 4.2 section “Geomechanics and Scientific Drilling” and lead author of the study. “We can conclude this from a large number of observations, on the one hand, of small earthquakes.” “Man-made, mostly harmless water injections that occur during water injection for oil, gas or geothermal extraction, but also from seismic fluctuations caused by water reservoirs and terrestrial tides.”

Problem areas: Coasts of the world

Increased seismic risks due to climate change pose a particular problem in coastal areas. There are many critical fault zones and subduction zones, where one plate dips beneath another. This is where 40 percent of the world's population already lives today, most of them in rapidly growing megacities. Known areas at risk include San Francisco, Los Angeles, Istanbul, Tokyo and Yokohama, as well as many large, growing cities in developing countries. The hazard status is not well known everywhere, since seismic cycles are sometimes longer than the history of settlement.

“The problem is that a large number of faults around the world are approaching the end of their seismic cycle, and even small additional stresses are enough to activate them in a premature earthquake, and in other cases,” explains Marco Bonhoff. “Words to enhance the natural seismic clock.” However, it is not yet fully known where the dangerous faults occur.

“In addition, these earthquakes can also cause secondary effects such as landslides and soil instability due to so-called soft soil liquefaction, thus further intensifying the geological hazards created by The issue of earthquakes caused by climate change should be taken into account in the next generation of seismic hazard maps.

More research needed

“More frequent and stronger storms will also increase the vulnerability of coastal areas to landslides, tsunamis and liquefaction during seismic tremors,” says Professor Yehuda Ben Zion of the University of Southern California in Los Angeles and co-author of the study. .

In their study, the authors provide suggestions for better quantitative assessments of the expected seismic impacts of sea level rise and the effects of more extreme weather. One example is seismic monitoring of areas with strong melting, such as in Greenland or individual glaciers, in order to be able to plot measurements on the Scandinavian land mass to improve forecasts of what is now expected to happen globally. In Scandinavia, the melting of glaciers has already occurred since the last ice age. This has also led to earthquakes there. However, there were no major cities or vital infrastructure at the time, unlike populated coastal areas around the world that would be affected in the future.

Expectations: Mitigating human-caused temperature rises and improving earthquake monitoring and prevention

According to the researchers, the increasing seismic risks from human-induced climate change, which add to the already known direct risks and dangers of global warming, reinforce the need to mitigate human-induced global temperature rises and invest in improved earthquake monitoring and greater resilience. infrastructure.

Bonhoff: “The impact of climate on the risk of cascading earthquakes, including landslides, tsunamis and liquefaction, should be taken into account when developing earthquake risk mitigation plans.” This is particularly important for coastal areas, including major cities and critical infrastructure.

Original post:

Marco Bonhoff, Patricia Martinez-Garzón, Yehuda Ben Zion; Global warming will increase earthquake risks through rising sea levels and cascading effects. Seismic Research Letters 2024; doi: 10.1785/0220240100

https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240100

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