A powerful earthquake swarm begins in Bardarbunga Caldera, Iceland

The instruments recorded dozens of events in quick succession beneath the Bardarbunga volcano in Iceland, starting at 06:08 UTC on January 14. Among the most significant early earthquakes was the M4.4 event at 06:29 UTC, with the epicenter located about 3.6 km (2.2) away. miles) northeast of Bararbunga at a depth of 4.9 km (3 miles).

However, the largest earthquake recorded to date was a M5.1 at 08:05 UTC. The depth of the earthquake was very shallow at only 0.1 km (0.06 mi), located about 3.9 km (2.4 mi) northeast of Barbarbunga.

Such shallow earthquakes may indicate localized magma seepage or sudden pressure redistribution near the surface.

While most events fall in the 1.0 to 3.0 range, the swarm has now produced earthquakes exceeding magnitude 4.0. Depths typically extend from about 0.1 km (0.06 mi) to approximately 9.7 km (6 mi) below ground level.

The most recent eruption occurred in 2014/2015, beginning as a fissure eruption at the Holuhraun vent on 29 August 2014, about 45 kilometers (28 mi) northeast of the subglacial caldera. Lava continued to erupt until February 28, 2015, creating a lava field that extended for about 85 square kilometers (32.8 sq mi).

Image credit: IMO

In an interview with RUV early Tuesday morning, Einar Bessie Gjestsson, a natural hazards expert at the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO), said it was difficult to say at this stage whether the swarm marked the beginning of a new eruption.

“Well, it's a little hard to say exactly at this point,” Guestson said.

“The swarm started relatively recently. But this is unusually intense seismic activity that we're seeing now in Bararbunga, compared to recent years. So we'll just have to watch this develop closely and then start predicting what's going to happen next.”

“When we had a Holuhraun eruption that started in the fall of 2014, there was a fairly long seismic swarm that preceded that eruption. It lasted for a week or between one and two weeks. It's possible that this was similar to the start of that swarm. We'll have to look at data on Closely now, this has just begun but this is an unusually dense seismic swarm, yes.

Image credit: IMO

The large central Bärbarbunga volcano lies beneath the northwestern part of the Vatnajökull ice sheet, northwest of Grimsvötn volcano, and contains a 700 m (2,297 ft) deep subglacial caldera.

Related fissure systems include the Veidivötn and Trollagigar fissures, which extend about 100 km (62 mi) southwest near Torvajokull volcano and 50 km (31 mi) northeast near Askja volcano, respectively.

Massive fissure eruptions, including an eruption at Thorsarharun that produced the largest known Holocene lava flow on Earth with a volume exceeding 21 cubic kilometers (5 cubic miles), have occurred throughout the Holocene and in historical times of the Vidéfoten fissure system. The last major eruption of Veidivötn, in 1477, also produced large tephra deposits.

The Loki-Fögrufjöll subglacial volcanic system to the southwest is also part of the Bárðarbunga volcanic system and contains two subglacial ridges extending from the largely subglacial central Hamarin volcano: the Loki Range trends to the northeast, and the Fögrufjöll Range trends to the southwest.

Jökulhlaups (glacier floods) resulting from volcanic eruptions at Bárðarbunga are likely to affect drainage in all directions.

Notably, a small glacial flood began at Kremsvotn volcano on January 13, 2025. Grimsvatn floods have occurred almost annually since November 2021. There are examples of volcanic eruptions occurring due to decompression at Kremsvotn after water flows from there. However, glacier floods have occurred frequently without volcanic eruptions.

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Updated 13:02 UTC, 14 January

“A more detailed review of the earthquakes will be conducted and these numbers may change,” IMO specialists said.

The swarm was very intense until around 09:00 UTC this morning when its intensity began to decrease, but tremors are still being measured in the area and it is too early to say whether the swarm is diminishing.

The IMO said this quake swarm is the strongest since the last volcanic eruptions at Pararbunga in 2014-2015 and the Holuhraun eruption.

The earthquake's movements are consistent with increased expansion due to ongoing magma accumulation since the last volcanic eruptions in 2015.

Seismic activity in Bárbarbunga has been increasing in recent months, including four earthquakes of magnitude M5 or higher in 2024. At the same time, an increased rate of deformation due to magma flow at depth beneath Bárbarbunga has been observed.

“The activity will be closely monitored, but it is difficult to predict what the development will be at this stage,” the IMO said in an update.

Bárðarbunga is an unusually large volcano, partly covered by a glacier, and there are several possible scenarios.

Image credit: IMO

Extensive research, including risk assessments and response plans, has been carried out on the 2014-15 bushfires, which will be useful should further bushfires occur.

There are examples of magma tunnels forming from the caldera and volcanic eruptions occurring outside of it, such as in the Holuhraun of 2014-2015 and in the Gelb eruption in 1996.

“However, a volcanic eruption cannot be ruled out inside the caldera. If an eruption occurs under a glacier, there is a risk of ash eruption and glacier flows under Vatnajökull, but if an eruption occurs outside the glacier, it will be a lava eruption.”

Bárðarbunga's aviation color code has been changed to yellow, this is done when the volcanoes show signs of activity considered above normal conditions.

References:

1 Earthquake swarm in Bardarbunga Caldera, Iceland – IMO – 14 January,

2 earthquakes in Bararbunga remind us of the period leading up to the eruption of Holuhraun volcano – RUV – January 14, 2025

3 Strong earthquake swarm in Bararbunga. The largest earthquake was M5.1 – IMO – January 14, 2025

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