Japanese committee says the probability of a huge earthquake reaches 82%

TOKYO – A Japanese government panel said on January 16 that it had slightly raised its estimate of the probability of a “strong earthquake” occurring to up to 82 percent over the next 30 years.

Experts say such a tremor could be devastating with a magnitude of 8 to 9 degrees, trigger massive tsunami waves, kill hundreds of thousands of people and cause billions of dollars in damage.

The Earthquake Research Committee said it had raised its estimate of the probability of an occurrence to between 75 and 82 percent, from between 74 and 81 percent previously.

This is what is known as a massive thrust earthquake along the Nankai Trough, an 800-kilometre-deep undersea rift that runs parallel to Japan's Pacific coast.

The trench is where the oceanic tectonic plate of the Philippine Sea dips — or slowly slides — beneath the continental plate over which Japan lies.

The plates become stuck as they move, storing huge amounts of energy that are released when they break free, causing potentially huge earthquakes.

Over the past 1,400 years, giant earthquakes have occurred in the Nankai Basin every 100 to 200 years, according to the Government Headquarters for the Promotion of Earthquake Research.

The last recording was made in 1946.

An official at the Earthquake Research Committee secretariat told AFP: “It has been 79 years since the last earthquake, and the probability of another earthquake is increasing every year at a pace of about 1 percent.”

According to government estimates in 2012, small islands off the main coast could be submerged by tsunami waves higher than 30 metres.

Huge waves could hit densely populated areas on the main islands of Honshu and Shikoku within a few minutes.

Last August, the Japan Meteorological Association (JMA) issued the first major earthquake warning under rules put in place after the devastating 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami.

She said the possibility of a new major earthquake along the Nankai Basin was higher than usual, after a 7.1-magnitude tremor injured 15 people.

The warning was lifted again a week later but caused shortages of rice and other staples as people restocked their emergency pantries.

In 1707, all parts of the Nankai Basin exploded at once, unleashing an earthquake that remains the second most powerful earthquake the country has ever seen.

This earthquake – which also triggered Mount Fuji's recent eruption – was followed by two powerful Nankai thrusts in 1854, then two in 1944 and 1946.

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