A mysterious and very active volcano can erupt near California later this year. What scientists expect

• Axial Seamout is the most obvious submarine volcano in the world. It is the most active activity volcano closest to California. • It may explode by the end of the year.

Scientists say that the mysterious and active volcano is very active off the coast of the Pacific Ocean can erupt by the end of this year.

Nearly a profound mile and about 700 miles northwest of San Francisco, the volcano known as the Seamout axis directs the increasing scrutiny of scientists who discovered only its presence in the 1980s.

The submarine volcano is located in a dark part of the northeast of the Pacific, and it has erupted three times since its discovery – in 1998, 2011 and 2015 – according to Bill Chadwick, a researcher at Oregon State University and an expert in the volcano.

Fortunately for the residents of California, Oregon and Washington, the seamout axis does not erupt in an explosive way, so it raises any danger from any tsunami.

Chadwick said: “Mount Saint Helen, Mount Rainer, Mount Hood, Kratr Lake – this type of volcano has a lot of gas and more explosive in general. The magma is more sticky,” said Chadwick. “The axis is like volcanoes in Hawaii and Iceland … less than gas, lava is very liquid, so that the gas can come out without the explosion.”

The destroyed force of explosive explosions is the legendary: when the Fisvius Mountain died in the year 79 AD, it eliminated the ancient Roman city of Pompei. When Mount Saint Helen broke out in 1980, 57 people died; When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcano exploded in the Tonga archipelago in 2022-it happened once in the century-caused the resulting Tsunami, which reached the maximum height of 72 feet, in the Pacific Ocean damage and left at least six deaths.

On the contrary, Seamount Axial Seamount is a volcano, during the explosions, wrapping volcanic lava – similar to the type of explosions in Kiloya on the large island of Hawaii. As a result, the axial revolutions are not noticeable for people on the ground.

It is a completely different story underwater.

William Wilkok, a professor of ocean science at the University of Washington, said that the heat columns from the explosion will rise from the sea floor – perhaps half a mile – but it will not reach the roof.

Jason is a complex system that works from a remote (ROV) designed to allow scientists to reach the sea floor without leaving the ship.

(Dave Caress/MBARI)

Chadwick said that the outer layer of lava flow will cool immediately and form a shell, but the inner Chadoyk can remain from the flowing lava flow for a period of time. “In some places … the lava comes out and escalates, then there is all this long heat that takes a long time to waste it. On these thick flows, microbial mats can grow, and it seems almost similar to snow on the landscape.”

Marine life can die if the lava is buried, which also risks the destruction or destruction of the scientific equipment that was installed around the volcano to detect explosions and earthquakes. Wilkok said the explosion may not affect marine life like whales, which are “very close to the surface” that bother the eruption.

Also, the explosions in the Seamout axis are not expected to a 9.0 earthquake in the CASCADIA cutting area. Such an earthquake is likely to be born catastrophic for Washington, Oregon and California provinces in the far north of the provinces. This is because the axial seamount is very far from this main error.

The axial seamount is one of the countless underwater volcanoes. Scientists estimate that 80 % of the ground output of the Earth – magma and volcanic lava – occurs in the ocean.

The axial seamount extracted great attention from scientists. It is now the best underwater volcano in the world.

Chadwick said the volcano is partially prolific reward because of its location. Do not float on the hills that float on the hills in which the tectonic and peripheral panels spread from each other – which creates the new sea floor in this process – but the volcano is also grown with the geological “hot spot” – a region where the amazing columns of the Earth's surface rises.

For Chadwick and other researchers, repeated explosions provide an opportunity to predict volcanic bangs weeks before months – which is difficult to do with other volcanoes. (There is also a much lower possibility than anyone who will be angry if scientists make a mistake.)

3D topography shows the CALDERA summit from the central Seamout, which is a very active under the sea of ​​the Pacific coast. The warmer colors indicate shallow surfaces; Cold colors indicate deeper surfaces.

(Susan Merle / Oregon State University)

“For many volcanoes around the world, they are sitting while they are sleeping for long periods of time, then they are active suddenly. But this active is very active all the time, at least in the time period we are studying,” Chadwick said. “If it does not explode, this is preparing for the next one.”

Scientists know this because they discovered a pattern.

“Between the explosions, the volcano swells slowly – which means high sea floor … and then during the explosion, the volcano will decrease, the volcano will decrease and the sea floor decreases,” said Wilkok.

Chadwick said that the explosions “like leaving some air outside the balloon. What we saw is that it has amplified to a similar level every time the eruption is erupted.”

Chadwick and his fellow scholars, Scott Noner, predicted the volcano's explosion for the year 2015 seven months before it occurred after they realized that the sea floor was swelling quickly and in sin. “This made this easier to extrapolate in the future to reach this threshold that it had reached before,” Chadoy said.

But the predictions have been more challenging. Chadwick began making the expected windows in 2019, but almost at that time, the inflation rate began to slow down, and by the summer of 2023, “it has almost stopped. So, it was so,“ Who knows when will you erupt? “

The octopus explores the depths of the seas, the flow of lava four months after the outbreak of the pivotal seamout volcano in 2015.

(Bill Chadwick, Oregon State University / Woods Hall Institute or Ocean / National Science Corporation)

But in late 2023, the sea floor slowly began to inflate again. Since the beginning of 2024, “it has been a kind of stirring at a very fixed rate,” he said. He and Noner, from the University of North Carolina in Wilmengton, appeared in July 2024 and posted it on its blog. Their prediction is still unchanged.

“At the inflation rate, I expect it to erupt by the end of the year,” Chadwick said.

But based on seismic data, the volcano is unlikely that the explosion is not clear. Although scientists did not master the prediction of volcanic explosions for weeks or months before the specified date, they are doing a decent work in the explosions from minutes to hours early, using evidence such as increasing the frequency of earthquakes.

At this stage, “We are not at the high earthquake rate that we saw before 2015,” Chadoyk said. “It will not shock me if it erupted tomorrow, but I think it will not be any time soon.”

He warned that his expectations are still up to experience, although those that have become completely public. “I feel more honest in this way, instead of doing this retroactively,” Chadwick said in a presentation in November. Expectations began to attract attention after he recently threw at the US Geophysical Union meeting in December.

On the bright side, he said: “There is no problem with a wrong or wrong warning,” because predictions will not affect people on the ground.

If the predictions are correct, “Perhaps there are lessons that can be applied to other most dangerous volcanoes around the world,” said Chadwick. As now, though, the predictions of explosions for many volcanoes on the ground are “more complex”, without there being a “repeated pattern as we see in this beach.”

Scientists in another place in other ways to predict the surface explosions. Scientists have begun to notice a repetitive pattern in the high temperature of the heat heat openings in a volcano in the East Pacific and the timing of three revolutions in the same place over the past three decades. “I have done somewhat,” Chadoyk said.

A lot of luck allowed scientists to photograph the volcanic site eruption known as “9 degrees 50 minutes north on the rise of the East Pacific”, which was just the third time that scientists took pictures of the active sea volcanoes.

But Chadwick suspects that researchers will be lucky enough for the seamout axial explosion.

Although scientists will be alerted to it by the beta initiative in the funds funded by the National Science Corporation, the sensing system run by Washington University-will reach there in a timely manner.

“You should be in the right place at the right time to pick up a business at work, because they do not last long. The axis may last a week or a month,” Chadwick said.

Then there is difficulty in obtaining a ship, a car or a submarine that works remotely to take pictures. Such ships are generally decided in advance, perhaps a year or a year and a half, and the projects are tightly scheduled.

Chadwick went last time to the volcano in 2024, and it is expected to come out in the summer of 2026. If its predictions are correct, it will have erupted already.

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