Sources: Government. Formulates new estimates of damage from a possible Tokyo earthquake

Sources say the Japanese government has prepared a new damage estimate in the event of a strong earthquake in greater Tokyo. The probable death toll was revised slightly to approximately 20,000.

The previous estimate was issued 12 years ago. The government set up a task force in 2023 to conduct a review, taking into account social changes and improving disaster mitigation measures.

Sources say the latest assessment is based on a 7.3 magnitude earthquake located directly beneath southern Tokyo. The new potential death toll is about 20 percent lower than the previous estimate of 23,000, reflecting progress in building earthquake-resistant homes.

The estimate puts the economic damage at about 80 trillion yen, or $515 billion. The previous estimate was 95 trillion yen. It also says the number of people who have been evacuated or will not be able to return home could rise to several million.

The new estimate calls for the entire community to prepare, including measures to address fires and improve earthquake resistance indoors. It also urges companies to consider ways to temporarily relocate their headquarters.

The working group plans to discuss further and release the new estimate around mid-December.

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