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'Mega earthquake' warning in Japan highlights concerns for Cascadia on West Coast
(Update: Add video, interview with researcher)
BEND, Ore. (KTVZ) – A new “large earthquake warning” in Japan is raising questions about what it could mean for Pacific coastal communities — including here in Oregon.
This warning was issued after a 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck Japan just days ago on December 8th. The worst case of a “mega-earthquake” in the Hokkaido-Sanriku region could produce waves approaching 100 feet in parts of Japan, cause nearly 200,000 deaths and cause severe damage to coastal communities, officials say.
Although scientists estimate that the chances of such an event occurring are only 1%, Japan's new advisory system is intended to serve as a wake-up call — not an accurate prediction. It was created after the devastating 2011 earthquake and tsunami that killed more than 18,000 people. Under this system, when an earthquake with a magnitude exceeding 7.0 hits certain areas, authorities issue an alert that a larger earthquake may follow in the coming days.
“This is not a prediction. This is a probabilistic warning,” Eric Velasco, an earthquake expert and postdoctoral researcher at Oregon State University, told KTVZ News on Wednesday. “This is an exercise of our confidence on how to respond to an earthquake. This is also happening in Japan. This is not to scare people – it is to prepare.”
For many Oregonians, this warning carries a strange echo from the past. In March 2011, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake off Japan unleashed a tsunami that crossed the Pacific Ocean, sending waves into ports along the West Coast. Although the waves here were much smaller than in Japan, they still damaged docks and boats and generated dangerous rip currents that caught some sailors by surprise.
KTVZ's Seismic Shift series recently explored how a large earthquake in the Cascadia Subduction Zone could similarly send evacuees into the mountains into central Oregon, straining housing and emergency services. A massive tsunami produced by Japan would not cause the same mass displacement, but it would still be a test of coastal evacuation systems, outreach to tourists, and the ability of ports to secure ships and infrastructure early.
Jonathan Allan of the Oregon Department of Geology and Minerals told KTVZ in an email that if a tsunami was generated by the recent earthquake in Japan, it would take approximately nine to 10 hours to reach the Oregon coast — a time that could mean the difference between safety and disaster.
“If this type of earthquake and tsunami happens in Japan, we will have a few hours to respond in the United States, so we have to be prepared, we have to be prepared. That's the call here,” stressed Velasco, who studied his doctorate in Japan.
As Japan braces for the possibility of another powerful earthquake off its coast, scientists and emergency managers in Oregon are watching closely, preparing for a real-life lesson in how tsunamis move across the Pacific Ocean.
Velasco added that Japan's experience shows the power of public education and teamwork. During the 2011 disaster, more than a million people were safely evacuated — a success credited to ongoing training and community-level awareness.
“If we work as a community and cooperate with each other, we will be able to prepare for this type of event,” he said.
Experts stress that the main message is not fear, but rather preparedness.
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