Asia FX Talk – The year 2026 began with a geopolitical earthquake

The year 2026 began with a geopolitical earthquake, with US President Donald Trump ordering an attack on Venezuela that led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. For now, this appears to be a limited military operation with no plan to deploy US troops or administrators on the ground in Venezuela, even as Trump initially caused confusion with his remark that the US plans to “manage” Venezuela. The key is that the US is backing Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro's right-hand man, to take over the role of interim president, rather than opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, which generally suggests it is not about regime change at least for now.

Initial implications for Asian markets are likely to include a bias for oil prices to decline over time, which could be positive at the margin for Asia's large oil importers such as the South Korean Won, Thai Baht, Philippine Peso and Indian Rupee. With oil markets already expected to run a significant surplus in 2026, this could add further downward pressure on oil prices, even as there is uncertainty over whether and how quickly Venezuela will be able to increase oil production as well as the stability of the regime.

In the long term, these developments represent another nail in the coffin of the post-World War II rules-based world order, and also importantly indicate US willingness to enforce the modern version of the Monroe Doctrine – which says that the US is the superior power in the Western Hemisphere and should not be afraid to guard its own backyard. Of course, whether the natural outcome is a further US withdrawal from the rest of the world, including here in Asia, will matter in the long term, along with how the rest of the world views the space available to it for further action in its own backyard in light of the measures the US puts in place. Understandably, these military actions have been met with extreme consternation and condemnation in public statements by a variety of countries including China, Brazil and Russia.

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