Can solar storms cause earthquakes? Scientists suggest a surprising link

Scientists at Kyoto University have developed a theoretical model that examines whether perturbations in the ionosphere can apply electrostatic forces deep within the Earth’s crust. Under certain conditions, these forces may contribute to the initiation of large earthquakes.

The research is not designed to predict earthquakes. Instead, it identifies a potential physical mechanism that explains how shifts in ionospheric charge levels – caused by intense solar activity such as solar flares – can interact with already weak areas of the Earth’s crust and influence how fractures develop.

How can the ionosphere affect fault zones?

In this model, fractured regions of the crust are thought to contain water at very high temperatures and pressures, perhaps in a supercritical state. Electrically, these broken areas may act like capacitors. They are coupled to the Earth’s surface and to the lower ionosphere, creating a vast electrostatic system connecting the Earth to the upper atmosphere.

When solar activity increases, the electron density in the ionosphere can rise significantly. This can create a negatively charged layer in the lower ionosphere. Through capacitive coupling, this charge may generate intense electric fields within microscopic voids within the fractured rock. The resulting electrostatic pressure can approach levels similar to tidal or gravitational pressures already known to affect fault stability.

According to the team’s calculations, ionospheric perturbations associated with major solar flares—which involve increases in total electron content of several tens of TEC units—may create electrostatic pressures of up to several megapascals within these crustal voids.

Ionospheric anomalies observed before major earthquakes

Unusual behavior of the ionosphere is often detected before strong earthquakes occur. Observations included a sharp rise in electron density, a decrease in ionospheric height, and slower propagation of medium-range ionospheric disturbances. Traditionally, scientists have interpreted these changes as effects caused by the buildup of stress within the crust.

This new framework offers an additional perspective. It suggests a two-way interaction in which processes within the Earth can influence the ionosphere, while ionospheric perturbations may also send feedback forces into the Earth’s crust. The model links space weather with seismic activity without claiming that solar activity directly causes earthquakes.

Solar activity and the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake

Researchers point to recent major earthquakes in Japan, including the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, as events that occurred shortly after periods of intense solar flare activity. They stress that this timing does not prove cause and effect. However, it is consistent with the idea that ionospheric perturbations can act as a contributing factor when errors are already close to failure.

Rethinking earthquakes beyond internal forces

By drawing on plasma physics, atmospheric science, and geophysics, this approach expands the traditional view that earthquakes are driven solely by forces within the planet. The results suggest that tracking ionospheric conditions combined with underground measurements can improve understanding of how earthquakes start and how seismic hazards are assessed.

Future work will combine GNSS-based high-resolution ion tomography with detailed space weather data. The goal is to determine when and how ionospheric perturbations can exert meaningful electrostatic effects on the Earth’s crust.

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