Political earthquake in Hungary

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Viktor Orban, Hungary’s longtime Christian nationalist leader, was ousted from office Sunday night by voters, and the result wasn’t even close. Peter Magyar, the arrogant leader of the TISA party, won a landslide victory that removed the bone that had been in the European Union’s throat for sixteen years.

You will be told that Orban’s loss is a resounding defeat for nationalism, populism, and Christian rule. Don’t believe it. Although Orban’s crushing defeat actually represents a huge symbolic loss for nationalist conservatives on the social and religious right, it does not constitute a victory for liberalism and globalization.

This is because Magyar, the next prime minister, is not a liberal. In fact, he has spent years as part of the elite of Fidesz, Orbán’s ruling party. He was married to the Minister of Justice until their acrimonious divorce in 2023.

In fact, a religious scandal launched Magyar’s political career. In 2019, a man from a politically connected Calvinist family was sentenced for his role in trying to cover up a child sexual exploitation scandal at a state-run orphanage. The family has reportedly appealed to Zoltan Balog, the reformist bishop of Hungary and a former minister in Orbán’s government, to seek a pardon from the Hungarian president, Katalin Novak.

Novak, also a Calvinist and a political disciple of Balogh when he was in government, quietly agreed to the request. When an opposition journalist found out a year later, the story turned into a massive scandal, given Fidesz’s strong pro-family Christian standing. Both Novak and Judit Varga, Minister of Justice, resigned. Peter Magyar publicly accused Orbán of making women scapegoats. He created his own political party, and now, two years later, he will rule the country.

Corruption is important. For all the good he has done, on family policy and other things, Orbán has failed to shore up the underfunded health care and public education system. More importantly, Fidesz under Orbán allowed too much patronage and the creation of an oligarchic class. Nobody liked him, but they ignored him when the economy was good. But the economy here never recovered from Covid. When all the boats stop rising, all eyes turn angrily to the yachts.

On the two most puzzling issues between the EU and Hungary – its hardline stance against mass immigration and opposition to European intervention in the Ukraine war – Magyar and Orban agreed.

However, if Orban faced a liberal opponent, he would likely be headed for a fifth consecutive term. Hungary is not a particularly religious country, but it is culturally conservative and has a strong sense of national identity. Peter Magyar ran against Orbán from the right. On the two most puzzling issues between the EU and Hungary – its hardline stance against mass immigration and opposition to European intervention in the Ukraine war – Magyar and Orban agreed.

Once in office, and if he is true to his campaign promises, Magyar will either disappoint his supporters in Brussels, or betray many of his voters.

In the aftermath of the election, the usual suspects across the Atlantic, liberals, began celebrating victory. For many years, they have been denouncing Orban as a quasi-fascist autocrat. How many quasi-fascist autocrats offer gracious concession speeches after losing elections, as Orbán did? This rhetoric has always been hate propaganda on the part of globalists sympathetic to Soros.

Their great Hun opponent, Viktor Orbán, was killed in an electoral battle, but the Orbán movement lives on. This means that parties across Europe, and in Great Britain, that take a strong stance against mass immigration, and that advocate for greater national sovereignty and a return to law and order, continue to grow in popularity, even as centrist, Eurosceptic parties decline. As UnHerd’s Aris Rosinos commented, “the Hungarian victory seems less a defeat for the European right than a generational development.”

Hungary’s young voters, who grew up knowing nothing but Orbán’s rule, are deeply divided in favor of Magyar (whose name, if he ran in the United States, would become “American Peter”). Once again: outside of Budapest’s cosmopolitan circles, the left has no appeal in Hungary. This was a vote against the economic stagnation and political corruption of a party that had been in power for too long. This was not a mandate for European liberalism. Orban may be gone, but the Orban movement is growing in Western Europe.

Donald Trump and J.D. Vance placed a big bet on Orban, with the vice president coming to a rally with Orban in the final week of the campaign. That didn’t help, and probably hurt Vance’s image. However, American commentators who interpret the Hungarian vote as a strike against Trumpism may be right, but not in the way they think.

It’s like this: populist nationalism remains very popular, but if the economy deteriorates and bad policy choices are made (such as launching an unpopular war), voters’ tolerance for corruption and cronyism will diminish. It is not enough to be a nationalist populist; You also have to govern cleanly and efficiently. This is the real lesson learned from Orban’s defeat for American conservatives.

One can only hope that the Trump team has the capacity to absorb this crisis and has time to reverse course. In contrast to Hungary, the American left enjoys a great deal of support. But like Hungary, resentment against the CEO is enormous, and the desire for revenge strong.

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