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He urged the Fed to consider supporting “tail risks” such as the Canadian epidemic, earthquakes and floods


Discussions on providing future pandemic coverage highlight the need to develop Canadian federal government support for other serious “tail hazard” events such as earthquakes, floods and wildfires, says the head of the Property and Injury Insurance Compensation Corporation (PACICC).

PACICC protects eligible policy holders from unexplained financial loss in the event of a member insurer’s bankruptcy.

“It is a reality and worrying fact that Canada remains the largest developed economy in the world with a significant exposure to earthquakes … and without a governmental mechanism to support the insurance sector and allow us to properly protect the citizens of our country, when this inevitable event occurs,” PACICC President Aleister Campbell wrote in the September 2020 issue From Solvency Matters. “I think the COVID-19 pandemic strongly demonstrates to the government the fundamental benefits of having a“ glass fracture ”plan – prepared in advance – for“ tail hazard ”events.

Campbell writes that the global COVID-19 pandemic has tested the ability and capacities of governments around the world to respond to extraordinary healthcare challenges. Moreover, governments had to manage the worst effects of the economic recession that followed lockdown measures (ordered to prevent the spread of COVID-19).

In the United Kingdom and the United States, discussions are already underway about the possibility of creating public / private epidemic pools, or other quota-sharing arrangements, to provide insurance coverage for future epidemics, Campbell notes. Lloyd’s of London is said to be in talks with Ottawa over a pandemic insurance model.

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Typically such proposals are designed on some form of pre-existing government support for other types of long-term risks, Campbell notes. In the United Kingdom, for example, ‘Pool Re’ and ‘Flood Re’ were created to handle tail events such as terrorist attacks, nuclear accidents or severe floods. In the United States, the TRIA prototype appeared in response to the events of 9/11, when high-penetration aircraft destroyed the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York.

But in Canada, “with the exception of the decades-old nuclear complex, we have neglected building risk transfer models to address the obvious tail risks we face, and so the work we need to do now is multifaceted,” Campbell writes. “Our industry needs government help in Think about options and choose the best possible solutions to face the risks of the epidemic. But at the same time, we must take advantage of this rare opportunity to see if we can also tackle some other long-term, but so far, yet unaddressed, events that involve tail risks and which we also know are inevitable in our large and geographically diverse country. – The earthquake, forest fires and floods. “

Campbell writes that the types of emergency support tools required vary with tail risks.

For a pandemic, the risk is widespread: “It is impossible to diversify the risks, either by time or by geographic region,” Campbell writes. “A global pandemic afflicts everyone, everywhere at the same time. Therefore, if ‘pandemic pools’ are established, the insurance industry can offer distribution and claims management capabilities, but it is not likely to be in a position to provide substantial amounts of capital. ” Risks – Ultimately, the loss has to be borne heavily by the government. “

Campbell writes that earthquake hazards are different. The Canadian P&C industry will be able to cover up to $ 35 billion in damages for a single earthquake event in 500 years before facing systemic risks. Beyond this point, however, Campbell writes, “the industry will face collapse – hence the compelling case for federal support.” In this case, the industry requires government support to tackle the topmost disaster tier only, in case the damage exceeds $ 35 billion.

As for floods, most of Canada is built on rocks, which reduces flood risks compared to the geology of other countries. Campbell suggests that modest premiums could cover up to 80% of Canadians for flood risk in most areas. But in areas most at risk of flooding (flood plains, for example), consumers face problems of both affordability and availability.

“It’s best to address this type of insurance problem through some form of support mechanism (think a utility association for the equivalent of auto insurance),” Campbell writes. But this problem also needs a firm government hand to ensure that subsidies do not encourage more risky behavior (for example, more construction in known flood areas). The Final Solution also requires government action to enforce requirements around “strategic retreat” and to invest public funds in mechanisms to support re-adaptation and substantially strengthen infrastructure in flood prone areas.

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