Down the rabbit hole – Times Standard

“Why does a crow like a writing desk?” Asks Mad Hatter Alice at Lewis Carroll’s famous tea party. Puzzlers and scientists have produced pages of potential answers, showing that any two seemingly unrelated elements have common characteristics. It popped into my head this morning as I pondered how COVID-19 is like an earthquake.

Coronavirus and earthquakes have been on my mind lately. The deadliest earthquake of 2020 was two weeks ago, and the epidemic was breaking new records almost every day. Like crow and writing table, they seem to be very different at first glance. The pandemic has a much larger footprint, in terms of area and size. In the past two weeks, 117 people have died in an earthquake and more than 100,000 deaths have been reported from COVID. The worst known earthquake killed 830,000 people (China, 1556), a modest number compared to many epidemics of tens of millions. The main attack of an earthquake is over in seconds to minutes, as epidemics take years and can produce repeated attacks over centuries. Even the largest earthquakes affect a relatively small area of ​​the planet; Unfortunately, we learn that the direct effects of pandemics are global.

When you take a closer look at writing desks and crows, similarities emerge (feathers, legs, bills, etc.). Earthquakes, epidemics, and other natural disasters are different and similar. The starting point for minimizing impacts for all of them is science and an understanding of the basic characteristics of the event, whether it be shaking the ground or infection. This means years of laboratory work, field notes, modeling, compiling case histories of past events, and recalling lessons learned.

Wouldn’t it be a good idea to summarize all this information into a single number that includes what we are dealing with and how much it is? The media may make you think that earthquake magnitude, hurricane category, or Fujita cyclone number is all that one needs to know. I know a lot about earthquakes, so I’ll use this as an example of why they don’t work.

Wikipedia summarizes earthquake activity and frequently refer to their site for background information. Each year begins with two lists: death toll and size. It doesn’t take a long look to realize that there’s little to do with the two. The M7.5 earthquake of 1976 in Tangshan, China, has likely killed more than 600,000 people and ranks as the deadliest of the past century. It was a thousand times weaker than the largest earthquake of the century, 1960 M9.5 in Chile. Even with a tsunami occurring across the Pacific Ocean, the death toll since 1960 has been around 6,000.

Earthquakes, like real estate, are dependent on LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. The epicenter of the 1960 Chile earthquake was in a remote, sparsely populated area. The Tangshan earthquake of 1976 was under a densely populated area with more than a million people and built infrastructure not designed to withstand strong vibrations.

I am a big fan of PAGER (Global Earthquake Real-time Assessment for Response). PAGER estimates the potential loss of life and economic impact usually within 15 to 30 minutes of an earthquake. Volume is an important input, but PAGER also uses the estimated vibration strength, population, and building construction nature to estimate losses. I worked with Dave Wald who led the PAGER team while developing USGS’s Did You Feel It algorithm. Did I feel it was one of the inputs to the force of Earth’s vibration so I feel like I have a very small part in PAGER.

The purpose of PAGER is to provide a quick alert to responders about whether a particular earthquake is likely to have significant impacts and how broad the area is. It usually takes days to get a good on-the-ground damage assessment, especially in remote areas, and PAGER provides a quick rundown of what has happened. Anyone can see the PAGER System Estimates – just go to the most recent earthquakes at the following website: Earthquake.

I knew nothing of the numbers used to describe epidemics before this year. In my article on March 8th, I conquered pandemics and learned that R0 (R nil) is an easy measure of transmitting the virus from person to person. But like size, it alone cannot predict impacts. Just as important are other factors such as the incubation period, how long a person has been infected, and mortality rates. And like earthquakes, the social environment and human response influence loss. Investing in understanding how structures respond to vibration and developing and enforcing stringent building codes to reduce earthquake losses. Reducing virus transmission through masks, spacing and, ultimately, effective vaccines will control the virus.

I think earthquakes are like writing desks and COVID is like a crow. Earthquakes stay in one place. They differ in appearance but we have a good way of describing them, and how they behave and interact with our built environment. Crows move, learn and develop behaviors, and it is difficult to predict what a particular bird will do. It is a more difficult problem to study than more variable earthquakes, but that does not mean that it is insurmountable. There has never been a time when the resources to monitor, analyze, model, and institutionalize the response to a pandemic have been more important.

Mad Hatter admits to Alice that there was no answer to the raven / writing desk puzzle. Its purpose was to emphasize the nonsense that Carole mastered in his two classic books, Alice. Later in his life, he suggested an answer, “Because (the crow) can produce some notes, they are so flat.” With this answer, I can claim that this column is similar to both as well.

Note: Learn more about the wonderful world of crows in Bernd Heinrich’s books, “Crows in Winter” and “Rooks’ Mind. ”

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos