Southwest Iceland vibrates – Atlas Obscura

This story was originally published on The Conversation and appears here under a Creative Commons license.

More than 17,000 earthquakes were recorded in southwest Iceland, on the Reykjanes Peninsula, in just over a week. People who live in the area have been advised to be very careful due to the dangers of landslides and rocks. We’ve felt several large earthquakes in the Icelandic capital Reykjavik – where more than half of the population lives – which is only 27 kilometers (about 17 miles) away.

This has led to growing concerns about the effects of larger earthquakes, as well as the possibility of a volcanic eruption from the Krýsuvík volcanic system in the region.

Southwest Iceland has a centuries-old record of calm, which we know can be broken by turbulent periods of intense seismic activity accompanied by volcanic eruptions. We seem to be entering a turbulent period ahead.

In fact, the most recent swarm of earthquakes is the latest in a period of significantly increased seismic activity that began more than a year ago. Earth’s shaking is the clearest manifestation of a massive release of energy. But magma has been quietly accumulating near the surface – and when that happens, the likelihood of surface shattering and volcanic eruptions increases.

On 3 March, concern increased sharply as a type of seismic activity characteristic of magma movement was detected, indicating that an eruption may be imminent. Civil Defense and other authorities held press conferences, closed roads, and tightened visual surveillance of the area above the site of the potential explosion. Of course, magma may move in the crust and then stop, but it is always wise to plan an eruption and then reduce it if nothing happens.

Eruptions in this region, near Reykjavik, tend not to produce much ash. Philippa / CC BY-SA 2.0

The problem is that the last time southwestern Iceland experienced a turbulent period of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions was in the 13th century AD – when there was no equipment to monitor seismic activity. There were also far fewer people around, which means we don’t really know the signals that were there before the eruptions. So there are big doubts.

However, Iceland has a world-leading network for monitoring seismic and volcanic disturbances, and has a proven track record of predicting volcanic eruptions and keeping its inhabitants safe. So if a volcanic eruption does occur, the odds are good.

The volcanic eruption in this region would not have been like the highly destructive explosive eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010, or the eruption of the larger but less destructive Grímsvötn volcano in 2011. Eruptions in southwest Iceland are of a liquid rock type called basalt. This results in slow-moving streams of lava that are fed by gently erupting craters and cones.

In Iceland, these are called “tourist revolutions”, because they are relatively safe and predictable, and they provide the opportunity for hundreds of people to witness a magical landscape – the creation of a new land. In the past, tourists flocked to Iceland to see such eruptions, but at the moment there is a five-day quarantine period for tourists entering Iceland due to the pandemic.

In the zone of current turmoil, there are no dwellings close by – it’s reassuringly remote. Lava currents flowing away from the area are unlikely to damage any property on the projected paths, but if the lava makes its way to the sea, it will cut some roads.

The bangs sometimes draw in crowds. This combined to see a volcanic show in March 2010. HALLDOR KOLBEINS / AFP via Getty Images

The biggest international concern about a volcanic eruption in Iceland is the disruption of air travel. Not only can the winds carry ash clouds rapidly toward Western Europe (as we saw with the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010), but ash clouds can rise into the atmosphere and into the stratosphere as commercial airlines travel through the congested Atlantic flyways.

But the volcanoes in southwest Iceland tend not to produce much ash, so the risk of disrupting international air travel is minimal. In the event that a volcanic eruption begins, flights will be automatically stopped at Keflavík International Airport, which is only 22 kilometers (about 14 miles) away, until a full assessment is done.

Wind direction has a major influence here, and given that the prevailing winds come from a westerly direction and that Keflavík is on the western side of the southwestern peninsula, the winds are expected to carry any ash away from Keflavík. The decisive effect of wind direction was beautifully underlined in 2010, when Keflavík Airport remained open while airports across Western Europe were closed for weeks.

While the current COVID-19 restrictions on entering Iceland will prevent hordes of tourists from traveling to see a potential eruption, there will be many Icelanders traveling to observe it. They have a strange saying in Iceland, “While in most countries people usually flee from volcanic eruptions, in Iceland we usually run towards them.”

Dave McGarvey is a volcanologist at Lancaster University.

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