Opinion: ending Utah’s mask won’t protect us from an earthquake

Generals are often warned not to fight the last war, which means they should focus less on what happened before and more on what might happen in the future.

The same applies to emergency preparedness.

This week and the following day marks the one year anniversary of two rare events. One of them was the start of a pandemic that continues to this day. Despite the long life disrupted, global pandemics have been rare historically from Halley’s comet. The other earthquake was a strong magnitude 5.7 earthquake in Salt Lake Valley that disrupted life for several days as aftershocks shook.

These are rare, too, but experts say we expect another, bigger one within a few years. The Utah Seismic Safety Commission puts a 57% chance of a 6.0 or higher earthquake occurring between now and 2063.

Lawmakers in Utah have paid much more attention to the current pandemic than the earthquake during the just-completed annual cycle. That was probably lagging.

There were two bills aimed at restricting the governor’s powers during the protracted state of emergency. The catalyst appears to be a deep aversion – among some Utah, in general, and their elected representatives – to the masked mandates that have been shown to be necessary to reduce transmission rates.

Ultimately, the governor approved a negotiating bill requiring legislative review for any emergency declaration lasting more than 30 days, and he approved a bill ending the state-wide mask mandate on April 10 (excluding groups of 50 or more) because, he said, it probably wouldn’t be Restrictions are important by then.

Masks will likely not be included in the next emergency. The most likely scenario is a long-term drought, and may require water rationing or some other method of controlling distribution.

Or it could involve a strong earthquake causing massive damage, leading to serious disruptions to facilities, including sanitation services, and possibly looting or other civil unrest. In such an ongoing situation, legislative oversight can be onerous.

However, in this regard, lawmakers have done little, if any, to address the state’s vulnerability to the earthquake, which is statistically more likely to become an issue in the next several years than mandating another mask.

According to some estimates, more than 147,000 homes, schools, and office buildings – most of them along the Wasatch facade – were constructed from unsupported construction work. These are brick homes that were built before 1975. When a major earthquake strikes, they can be turned into weapons against anyone inside.

So far, Utah has survived the pandemic in an impressive way. Unemployment remains low, and tax revenues are increasing. This is likely not the case after a major earthquake.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has projected the death toll to be around 3,000 from an earthquake of magnitude 6.75 or higher. Many people will be wounded. The economic impact of the structures, roads and utilities would be enormous.

It makes sense to address the setup cost now, rather than the higher cost of the tragedy later. Legislators could have used some of their surplus money to boost loan programs to help people modify dangerous homes. Some loan programs exist, but the money doesn’t extend far enough.

At the very least, they could have passed laws requiring sellers to inform buyers that the house they are considering does not comply with an earthquake code, and provide them with information on software to fix the problem.

It is, of course, impossible to predict emergencies with certainty. Perhaps no major earthquake will strike in the lifetime of anyone who lives currently. Then again, if that happens, today’s political leaders will appear shortsighted in their reaction to hiding states as they prepare for the next big challenge.

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