More vaccinations will reduce the number of cases of COVID in Colorado-usually

The Colorado region, where more people are vaccinated, has fewer cases of COVID-19 overall, but some counties with lower vaccinations seem lucky to avoid the surge this spring. is.

The question is whether the luck will continue if the population remains unvaccinated, especially with the more contagious variants lurking in the state.Mesa County is approaching There is a shortage of hospital beds Earlier this month, a potentially easier and more deadly delta variant moved two-thirds of the unprotected population.

According to Beth Carlton, an associate professor of environmental and occupational health at the Colorado School of Public Health, these counties should not count on it.

“If the county’s vaccination coverage is low, it’s time to deal with it, especially with the Delta variant,” she said.

It is especially important to vaccinate now, as a single dose of the vaccine has significantly less protection against deltas than other forms of the virus and takes 5-6 weeks to reach the highest levels of immunity, she said. Told.

In Colorado counties with a population of over 100,000, it is easy to see the link between increased vaccination and decreased cases, with the exception of about 12 small counties. In large counties, such as Jefferson County, where more than half of the population is fully vaccinated, about half of the state’s cases were recorded during the first two weeks of June.

On the other hand, in El Paso County, where more than one-third of the population is vaccinated, the case rate was almost double that of the entire state.

The inequality is even more pronounced in Mesa County, where the proportion of new cases was four times that of the state. According to Amanda Mail, a spokeswoman for Mesa County Public Health, this may be due, at least in part, to the prevalence of delta variants among unvaccinated people.

Most cases of delta variants are in Mesa and El Paso counties, but accounted for about 40% of the variant cases found throughout the state last week, suggesting that previous versions of the virus are beginning to congest. This is consistent with global evidence that delta variants have caused a surge in highly vaccinated countries such as the United Kingdom.

So far, delta variants have not been found in the Eastern Plains, one of Colorado’s least vaccinated areas. Trish McLean, director of public health at the Northeastern Colorado Department of Health, said they still need to be careful.

The first Colorado case of the alpha variant, formerly known as B.1.1.7, was found in Shimura’s nursing home. Alpha was more contagious than the original version of the virus, but was hidden by Delta.

“I couldn’t understand the rhyme or reason for how the variant would appear,” she said. “It’s a guessing game.”

It’s also unclear if any variants are related, with the two exceptions of vaccination and lowercase correlation, San Miguel and Gunnison counties in western Colorado.

In San Miguel County, higher levels of infection are seen, even though 64% of the population is fully vaccinated. Lindsey Mills, a public health consultant for San Miguel County, said vaccination rates vary by region of the county. The county case rate was about three times higher than the state average in the first half of June.

More than two-thirds of the cases come from the less populated western part of the less vaccinated counties, Mills said. The remaining cases are mostly mild, breakthrough infections in the eastern part of the county, which are populous and attract tourists.

“We have a truly diverse community of astoundingly different views on vaccines and general intake,” she added.

In Gunnison County, despite above-average immunization rates, there were slightly more COVID-19 cases than in the entire state, with 59% fully protected.

Joni Reynolds, program director at the Gunnison County Public Health Service, said he wasn’t sure if the rates reflected the real situation. In small counties, the virus, which spreads to even one family, can be thrown away, she said. Gunnison County has about 17,000 inhabitants.

“In a larger county or larger population, it becomes dilute,” she said.

Six of the ten counties with the lowest case rates also have below-average immunization rates, with less than 5,000 inhabitants in all Morgan counties except one.

Statistics are more variable in smaller populations, and the number of cases may be unreliable in rural areas of the younger population who know they are less likely to develop symptoms or need to be tested, Carlton said. He said.

Trish McLean, director of public health at the Northeastern Colorado Department of Health, said the number of cases may be underestimated in some eastern plain counties due to the difficulty of taking the test. .. For example, in Washington County, she said the state sends a mobile test unit once a week.

The region’s agricultural-centric economy could also help, as the virus is unlikely to spread to outdoor workplaces, McLean said.