Public Health Experts: No, you shouldn’t aim to live with Covid-19 as you would with the flu

Britain has announced plans to abandon the rest COVID-19 Freedom-supporting restrictions, mobile public health professionals Professor Michael Baker I named it “Savage Experiment”.

The· New Zealand government already We went back to the herd immunity strategy and rejected the idea of ​​treating Covid-19 like the flu. There you will learn to vaccinate and simply live with it.

“We need benchmarks based on good public health and fair economic considerations, not really shocking benchmarks,” Baker said.

Covid-19 was compared to influenza from the beginning, but mainly Explain the symptoms – It was not a virus that should have been the target of the post-vaccination roadmap.

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“It’s a very low bar,” Baker said. “It’s our biggest (infectious) disease killer.”

In a study at the University of Otago The flu kills about 500 New Zealanders each year.

There were some major differences between Covid-19 and influenza that should not be ignored, mainly due to the infectivity of the virus.

This coronavirus evolves more slowly than influenza, but it can spread much faster.The· Delta variantFor example, the estimated reproductive value (R0) was 5. That is, 5 people per person can infect others.On the other hand, influenza Median R0 1.28..

Also, unlike influenza, existing data do not appear to classify Covid as a seasonal virus.Yes it tended Easy to spread in winter – Primarily thanks to human behavior – but it had the ability to spread just as easily in the warmer months.

India It was a perfect example of this. A deadly second wave, with hundreds of thousands of new cases and thousands of deaths each week, occurred in the summer months of the country.

influenzaOn the other hand, it is likely to spread in winter, resulting in thousands of hospitalizations and numerous deaths.

Baker thought the idea that we should learn to live with Covid-19 was alarming. “I think we have to see what we consider normal.”

He said the fact that we simply accepted that the flu kills hundreds of people each winter was shocking. He explained it as the Grim Reaper would go through and collect the harvest.

He thought that if there was an influenza vaccine on the market that was as effective as the Covid-19 option, he would also aim to get rid of the seasonal virus.

Measles approach is desirable

Instead of modeling the future Covid-19 response to the flu, Baker measles And Polio Outbreak – Disappears as soon as a case occurs.

Allowing the virus to spread in the community throws measles or Chickenpox party.. That approach would now be considered “barbaric,” Baker said, so a safer and smarter approach was to respond to and contain outbreaks as needed.

“The New Zealand model of containment of rapid outbreaks and punching it out works very well … we keep it going. It’s to me that it … is the best strategy in the long run. It looks like there is.

“There are enough viruses to circulate. You can get rid of them.”

He said this model is not always Depends on blockade, Because these measures were usually only needed if no one was immunized. Baker Target alert level system Introduced Maskman date Or, if necessary, advise you to work from home.

“When the immunization rate is high, the situation is completely different.

“In the future, we may probably keep public transport masks in the winter, not in the summer.”

Measures already completed by New Zealand have already proven effective in controlling the outbreak of infectious diseases. This showed that future outbreaks were manageable.

“That’s a big advantage we have now,” Baker said.

“It is wise to choose exclusion as at least a medium-term strategy, and who knows it may be the best long-term strategy.”

Britain’s “experiment” is a global sight

In the UK’s next pandemic announcement, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, “This pandemic is not over yet,” and “sadly, we must reconcile to increase the death toll from Covid-19.” ..

All public health restrictions, including mask use, physical distance requirements, and blockages, will expire by July 19.

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said Tuesday This does not happen in New Zealand.. “We may see more gradual changes. [rather] Rather than a dramatic change that wakes up one morning and says, “I just go back to what it was before Covid-19.”

Baker said the UK decision was a “big bet” and scared British colleagues.

“They are basically going back to the model they started a year ago. Herd immunity (From a mass infection. “

He said they put all their trust in the dream of continued efficacy of herd immunity and vaccine immunity – it was not yet known.

As Baker explained, this “barbaric experiment” will provide valuable data to New Zealand and the world. If successful in any way, it could be another option to consider. But for the time being, it was very dangerous.

Australian person Prime Minister Scott Morrison also recently outlined plans for his country to return to normal. However, this roadmap was a safer approach than the UK.

The· 4-step plan Set up gradual changes and reduced obligations to ultimately treat the virus like the flu without blocking or restricting vaccinated travelers. Ultimately, it was intended to be reopened in other parts of the world with pre-flight and post-flight tests.

Baker said the approach is moving in the opposite direction of the UK by moving from a suppression model to a management model rather than removing band-aid and expecting the best.

So many unknowns

Professor David Murdoch of the University of Otago explained that at the beginning of the pandemic, the idea of ​​simply living with the pandemic and letting the virus run in the process was discussed.

However, it soon became clear that elimination was the most effective strategy.

Now, in the discussion of exit strategies, the topic resurfaced.

Elimination was still a good goal, but eradication would be an ideal end. Murdoch didn’t think this was likely to happen, but only one illness was successful in eradicating it. smallpox..

Without global eradication, Covid-19 still poses a risk. Maintaining a long-term elimination strategy technically meant still living with the virus, but it wasn’t the same way as the flu.

“We know that with Covid you can really work hard, control it, and prevent it,” Murdoch said.

Uncertainty about how the virus reacts to a world of high levels of vaccination remains, and only time was available to answer questions about virus patterns and vaccination lifespan.

For this reason, Murdoch thought he did not know exactly how long he would need to live with the virus until all vaccinations were completed.