With the rise of the Delta, are vaccines still enough to end the pandemic?

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As health officials warn, it could be in the spring of 2022 before the COVID is tamed. Only if 90% of the population has been vaccinated after another 6-8 months wave has increased hostility to intentionally unvaccinated.

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A new poll found that the majority of Canadians believe that unvaccinated is selfish and irresponsible and puts others at risk.

But do powerful tactics like vaccination obligations and passports work, or do they simply establish resistance and foster conspiracy theories? Some argue that dividing people into “dangerous” and “safe” may not completely stop vaccination with the delta mutant.

The vaccine protects against serious illness, Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina tweeted this week. “Vaccines may slow the spread — yes,” he said. “But many policies in the United States and elsewhere assume that vaccines completely prevent the spread. This leads to outbreaks among vax’d. This is expected to be appropriate. Unless set, it will ultimately undermine confidence in the overall vaccine effort. “

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NS Preprint by Canadian Research Network It is estimated that by the end of summer, 60-80% of Canada’s population will have some immunity to COVID, but that is still not enough to stop the fall revival. The degree of rebound depends on the rate of weakened immunity, the infectivity of the highly contagious delta, distance mitigation and other public health measures, and how well the vaccine can tolerate infections and severe illnesses. They said. “It may be necessary to reintroduce boosters and / or reintroduce public health mitigation to prevent major recurrences,” the author writes.

It took a year and a half for COVID, but there are still many unpredictable things.Still, “uncertainty is part of COVID,” Toronto Infectious disease expert Dr. Andrew Morris writes in a weekly COVID email.

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To summarize just last week: Quebec advised employers that it is “wise” not to return office workers yet. Given the increase in confirmed COVID cases and the reopening of school, it is up to the employer to decide whether to require employees to present a vaccination passport for those wishing to return physically. Air Canada has introduced a mandatory vaccination policy for all employees and new employees. No, testing is not an alternative, the company said in a release. Not fully vaccinated by October 30, except with valid exemptions, will result in “including unpaid leave or dismissal.”

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After rejecting the vaccine certificate system Introduced by Dr. Bonnie Henry of BC that’s all, Alberta has announced plans to make vaccination card certification available Ontario health care officers are fed up with Ontario dithering (although state-wide vaccine passports like Quebec remain banned) and companies and organizations that require vaccination certification As the number of vaccines increased, we agreed to create our own vaccine certificate.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has vowed to require COVID shots to board planes and trains.

Jack Jedwab, president of the Canadian Research Association, said there was a high level of tension and polarization between the vaccinated majority and the unvaccinated. “People are so sticking to that position that it’s very difficult to have a conversation. At this point, if they haven’t been vaccinated, they’re very sticking to their position.”

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The Association’s poll by Leger suggests that the majority of vaccinated people do not think there are rights or civil liberties issues. “They don’t give any credibility to the argument,” Jedwab said. “In a public health emergency, your claim violates my desire to protect my health, which replaces what you describe as a right.” Problems can arise if you threaten your livelihood. Jedwab expects discord and tension to increase as more people are vaccinated and unvaccinated people feel more “compressed.”

But that becomes awkward and ambiguous. There is a core delegation of anti-vaccine groups trying to disseminate disinformation and disinformation, but “all of these people (who are hesitant or disliked vaccines) do something on the internet. I don’t think it’s just people who read it. The virus isn’t real, “said Jason Kindrachuk, a virologist at the University of Manitoba. “Often there may be a vast historical background behind all these emotions and inferences.” Some of the frustrations between pro-vaccines are probably much more than people are aware of. He said it was a perception that there was a proportion of disgust.

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Some concerns may not be completely unreasonable. Although some women report an abnormal menstrual cycle, previous studies have found no evidence that the COVID-19 vaccine affects fertility and childbirth. A huge new study from Israel in this week’s issue of The New England Journal of Medicine Although the Pfizer vaccine increases the risk of heart inflammation (about 3 events per 100,000 vaccinated people), it has been found that the risk of people infected with the SARS-Cov-2 virus is several times higher (per 100,000 people). 11 cases). COVID infection was also associated with a significant increased risk of other serious adverse things such as heart attack, blood clots, and bleeding in the skull and brain.

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While Preprint paper Announced this week suggests that immunity, including protection against Delta breakthrough infections, lasts longer after spontaneous infection than after two doses of Pfizer, suggesting COVID officials. No one is there. “What we don’t want people to say is,” Okay, I should go out and get infected, I should have an infection party, “said Michel Nussenzweig, an immunologist at Rockefeller University. Says I told Science magazine. “Because someone can die.”

“Looking at the risks associated with infection, all the data say that vaccination is the safest way to fight the virus,” Kindrachuk said. “For now, I think it’s quite difficult to oppose vaccination.”

Morris agreed this week that dithering with COVID “will be a ridiculous game.” The virus has moved the world’s population and continues to change as the variant of concern and infections increase.

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At the same time, a study released this week by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reduced the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) in preventing infections in front-line workers from 91% to 66% after Delta became the dominant strain. I found out that I did. According to the CDC, this trend needs to be interpreted with caution. Protection can also decline “as vaccinations increase”. And vaccines are very effective against bad consequences such as hospitalization and death.

However, weakened immunity and reports of breakthrough cases have sparked debate about the need for boosters. In Israel, of the 680 people hospitalized with COVID on Thursday, 331 were fully vaccinated. As Reuters reports, the most serious breakthrough cases involve people over the age of 60 with heart disease, lung problems, or other underlying health problems. And despite some alarming posts on social media about breakthrough cases in highly vaccinated populations, some context is missing: as the increasing proportion of the population is vaccinated. As shots are not, the rate of vaccination among infected people will also increase, promising 100% protection. Still, serious cases are rare, but Mina believes that breakthrough infections are not as rare as they are. “The ongoing message that breakthroughs are rare eventually shoots our feet. They are not uncommon, and the general public sees this,” he tweeted.

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It is important to monitor weakened immunity, Kindrachuk said. There is no specific marker that says, “OK, this antibody has an X amount, so you get protection for Y years or months.” “

And while vaccination can still spread the virus, they are less infectious and appear to clear COVID faster than unvaccinated. Those infections also tend to be mild. “Only unvaccinated people are really at risk,” said Eric Arts, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Western University.

“And in certain states, we are taking very serious steps to protect unvaccinated people by preventing exposure to the virus and vaccinated people,” he said. “It’s sad that we have to go to the extent that we do it to protect unvaccinated people, but that’s what we need in this situation until we get vaccinated against them.” BC As with previous Quebec, vaccination appointments surged after announcing the passport program.

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