More than 15,000 COVID-19 cases per day could occur in Canada next month, Tam said.

New modeling released by Tam Friday shows that Canada may see more than 15,000 new cases per day by early October if the current prevalence of COVID-19 remains the same. I did.

This almost doubles Canada’s average of 8,500 cases per day at third wave height, but so far, hospitalizations have not increased as rapidly as in spring. ..

“But of course we can do something about the resurrection,” Tam said.

It doesn’t have to mean a blockade, she said, which no one wants. State governments that use more vaccinations, especially among young adults, and targeted measures such as public mask obligations and capacity limits, need to do so.

“This seems to have said the same thing last fall, but now vaccines are an important tool,” Tam said.

Currently, more than three-quarters of Canadians over the age of 12 are fully vaccinated. Tam said the number needs to be increased to more than 80% so that highly infectious delta mutants do not overwhelm the healthcare system, especially in the younger age group with the lowest vaccine intake and the highest infection rates. Said.

According to Health Canada data, there are 7.9 million Canadians over the age of 12 who have not yet been fully vaccinated, half of whom are between the ages of 18 and 39.

Tam said it is of utmost importance to increase vaccine intake in that age group, as young people tend to be more closely associated. They also cause most infections. According to national data, 44% of the new COVID-19 cases in July and August are people between the ages of 20 and 39, accounting for 27% of the total population.

Another 1.6 million Canadians between the ages of 18 and 39 need to be fully vaccinated to reach 80%. Another 216,000 children in their 40s and 318,690 children between the ages of 12 and 17 need to be vaccinated for these groups to reach 80%. Everyone over the age of 50 has already achieved that goal.

Tam said he wanted it to happen by Labor Day, but it’s so unlikely that she said it should happen as soon as possible thereafter.

“The moment we bring people back indoors and access the important things we have to do, we will accelerate,” she said. “So we don’t have much time.”

Tam said federal advice on the use of booster shots will soon be announced between immunocompromised adults and caregivers who have not had the same booster effect as most people with a healthy immune system. ..

“We didn’t have enough data, so please be careful and patience with the boosters of the rest of the population,” Tam said. “And, based on the information we have at hand in Canada, vaccines are very effective, apart from breakthrough infections and infections. They are also very effective for delta-type hospitalizations.”

By giving the first two doses to unvaccinated people, Tam suppresses this fourth wave rather than widely distributing booster shots to those who are already fully vaccinated. He said that there is a big difference.

“I don’t think it will have a big impact on the wave without filling that (vaccine) gap in the young adult population,” Tam said.

This report by Canadian Press was first published on September 3, 2021.

Mia Labson, Canadian Press

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