COVID and Flu: Is the “eccentric” threat lurking again?

First, the good news. Last year, the flu was virtually non-existent.

Bad news: Low flu last season means increased risk this fall and winter.

Public health authorities in California and elsewhere Warning about last year According to experts, the combined threat of influenza and COVID-19 has been significantly mitigated by widespread use of face masks, reduced physical distance and movement. But their concerns are back again this year.

Influenza activity during the 2020-21 season Was the worst recorded According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, since data collection began in 1997.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said in a press conference earlier this month, “Last year there were so few illnesses that the population’s immunity was weakened, and this year we are all among the most vulnerable people, especially children. It can increase the risk of illness. ”

Authorities were informed of the death of one child during the flu season last year, compared to the 199 flu deaths reported among children with the flu last year. The CDC did not have an estimate of adult flu deaths last season.

There is particular concern that the flu season may worsen as hospitals face a serious staff shortage. Last week, one-third of all California hospital reported a serious shortage Cal Matters reported on staffing due in part to burnout.

For example, about 710,000 people were hospitalized nationwide during the 2017-18 flu season, which was considered serious by the CDC. 100,000 people in California, Health officials estimate.

Influenza vaccination remains the best preventive measure against serious illness.Doctors and public health professionals encourage people to get vaccinated — ideally By the end of October — Keep in mind that influenza vaccination will ultimately reduce the number of people in need of ambulance transport and emergency room.

Dr. Penny Borenstein, a health officer in San Luis Obispo County, said:

“We know that the recent flu season has been relatively mild in the Southern Hemisphere and that the vaccine was well suited to the strains circulating there,” she said. “We expect similar results during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere flu season.”

According to CDC estimates 47% of adults in California Last year, I was vaccinated against the flu as well as the 2019-20 flu season. This is the lowest in the country, just below the national average of 50%. By comparison, Massachusetts and Rhode Island had the highest levels of influenza vaccination last year at 62% and 64%, respectively.

California has been better off with flu shots for children — about 58% of children were immunized last season. In Massachusetts, immunization of children was close to 84%.

Last year, many skipped holiday gatherings, college students didn’t go home, and most places needed masking and physical distance. All these factors probably helped reduce influenza activity.

“Unfortunately, we’ve relaxed most of these measures this year,” said Shira Shafir, a professor of epidemiology at the University of California, Los Angeles. This is bad news for both COVID and non-COVID respiratory infections, she said.

And the pandemic isn’t over yet. Nearly 80% of Californians over the age of 12 are immunized with COVID, but there are still pockets for people who could flood the hospital this winter.

Dr. George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology at the University of California, San Francisco, said: “I think all of this will be revealed in November. If we see a surge in early November, it will get worse during the holidays.”

Health experts are also keeping an eye on the delay in the growth of another seasonal virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The virus usually peaks in winter, but in some places, cases have surged much later than usual this summer, Rutherford said.

This virus Common cold symptoms and even pneumonia.. People of all ages can be infected with RSV, but babies and the elderly, especially those with weakened immunity, Increased risk of severe cases..

Like influenza, respiratory syncytial virus decreased last winter, probably due to distance and masking. Surveillance reports from the CDC show the percentage of tests coming back in California RSV positive It has been increasing since June.

“That’s also a concern, probably more than the flu,” Rutherford said.

Researchers who saw the latest RSV spikes in New York Recently wrote in the Journal of American of Pediatrics Hospitals need to plan an increase in pediatric emergency visits. There is no vaccine against this virus.

According to Rutherford, the burden of respiratory illness this fall and winter depends largely on how long the masking lasts. In addition to flu vaccination and COVID-19 vaccination, he recommends that people plan to celebrate Thanksgiving outdoors.

“Also, you don’t have to have more than 60 people for Thanksgiving. Keep it small and keep your life simple,” he said.

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