People wonder if they should stay calm and continue to face the Delta Plus variant

Ohno. Never again.

Just as the COVID surge in the United States began to decline, another coronavirus variant soon appeared.This time in the UK

Known in the media as “Delta Plus,” this variant has raised concerns as it has begun to spread to several parts of the UK in the past few weeks. It currently accounts for about 6% of all UK cases.

To find out what’s happening with this new variant, and the risk that it could raid the United States and cause another resurgence, NPR has been working since the first variant appeared last fall. Talked to three people who are tracking variants like Taka.

Question 1: The name of the variant is a little scary, Delta Plus. What does “plus” mean if Delta is already highly contagious?

“It’s a bit like Delta’s grandson,” he says. Epidemiologist William Hanage At Harvard University.

Since Delta was first identified in India last year, it has continued to evolve and picked up more mutations.And these mutations created many variants of Delta, including those here in the United States.

All of these new versions are descendants of Delta, says Hanage. “Delta Plus has been used interchangeably for the descendants of Delta that people are now twisting. Whether they should have a twist is another matter.”

In the past, Hanage points out that all of these previous Delta Plus mutants were found to be not much different from the original Delta. They are neither more dangerous nor contagious.

Question 2: So what about this new “Delta Plus” that is so popular in the UK? Scientists have named it “AY.4.2”.And now it explains 6% or more Of the case there. Does that mean it’s more contagious than the current version of Delta, which is dominant in the United States?

“No one knows yet,” says the virologist. Jeremy Ruban At the University of Massachusetts School of Medicine. “It’s too early to really know.”

This is because there is not yet enough data to measure its transmission rate. “That said, if it’s more contagious, it’s likely to be a small increment,” Luban adds.

Hanage is estimated to be about 10% more likely to be infected than the original version of Delta.

Remember that Delta is already a supermarket Infectious.. Therefore, adding 10% does not dramatically change the behavior of the variant. (For example, suppose your truck has a supercharged engine. Even if you increase the turbocharger by 10%, it is not so supercharged.)

Question 3: However, the transmission rate has improved to some extent. Can Delta Plus wipe out the entire United States and reverse the calm of the case here, like the usual Delta this summer?

“There are no obvious signs that it will get going as Delta did,” says Luban. “When we survey people who follow these variants, I think most people will say,” AY.4.2 is unlikely to be the new delta. ” It is unlikely that you will take over completely. In some cases, it is more likely to be a slow creeping increase. “

Epidemiologist Justin Wrestler The University of North Carolina University used a computer model to see what would happen when a new variant arrived in the United States. He and his colleagues ran a simulation using a variant with a 50% higher transmissivity than Delta to see what happened.

“Using a much more contagious variant than Delta Plus, the case did not revert to the peak type seen last winter, or even the peak type seen in delta waves,” wrestlers said. Says.

He says that many people now have some protection from SARS-CoV2 in the United States because they are boosting their immunity through infection, vaccination, or both. He says that reversing US calm is likely to require more variants than improved transmission rates.

For example, wrestlers add that the emergence of mutants that can escape detection by antibodies could lead to a major resurgence. So far, there is no evidence that Delta Plus has this ability.

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