What does the end of the pandemic look like?

“Therefore, this isn’t all rule-based, it’s usually based on what you have to do to control the outbreak,” says Monteau. “The big difference here is that our vaccine is much more effective than what we usually see.”

According to Monto, the good news is the power of vaccines. The bad news comes with the changing and evolving power of viruses.

No one can predict what the future of Covid-19 will be. And he said the emergence of coronavirus mutants like Delta changed the orbit.

“Because of the emergence of variants as the infection pattern changed (I call this a parade of variants), there is now a much wider range of infections and a much more uniform spread worldwide. This makes it more difficult to declare the end of the pandemic, “Monto said. “The whole pattern of spread has changed, and there may still be pockets that haven’t actually experienced the waves that other parts of the world have experienced.”

“Wait, look, hold your breath”

In the future, Monto and other public health leaders say the world can track the epidemic of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, in a manner similar to how it monitors seasonal influenza. I’m expecting it.

“I don’t know if SARS-CoV-2 has such a seasonal pattern, but it reminds us that most respiratory viruses begin to behave as seasonal events,” Monto said. ..

“Some of the coronaviruses that infect people have precedents for very seasonal patterns,” he added. “I don’t know if SARS-CoV-2 will start to behave that way, but at least it gives us one scenario where it might start to behave that way.”

As Monto said, you have to “hold your breath, look, hold your breath” to understand what the coronavirus epidemic looks like.

“What we want is a low level that, if not completely eliminated, will not have a significant impact on public health or our lives,” Forch said. “So, if you vaccinate more people around the world and get more people vaccinated now, it can occasionally go up and down in the background within a reasonable period of time, but that’s what it is. You won’t control us. We’re doing it now. “

“There is still a lot to do”

To move from a pandemic to endemic, the country needs to build immunity to the coronavirus-this means more people need to be vaccinated, says a pediatrician at Boston University. And epidemiologist Dr. Philip Landrigan told CNN.

The transition may take longer, as some Americans still refuse to take Covid-19 shots and some Americans refuse to wear masks.

So far, the CDC says there’s a lot to do to control the current spread of the virus.

“We know there’s still a lot to do to stop the COVID-19 epidemic and end the pandemic. We’re still seeing too many new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. The daily average of cases exceeds 70,000. CDC spokesperson Kristen Nordland wrote to CNN last week by email.

“We look forward to autumn and winter, so we know about vaccinations, wearing masks in public places, using them indoors, staying home when sick, and washing our hands often. It is important to continue to implement the precautionary measures that are in place. “

Health authorities are familiar with the work needed to improve vaccination coverage.

The annual fight against the coronavirus may be very similar to the annual fight against the flu.

“We’ve been thinking a lot about what the endemic stage looks like and the data we need to collect at that stage. Indeed, now we have data on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. “We’re collecting,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Senate Committee on Thursday. Is to model. “

“A more probable picture of our future”

One idea is that when a coronavirus epidemic occurs, a similar tracking system can be used to monitor the pathogen.

“We were able to handle the cases as we did for seasonal flu. We know that many cases occur in the winter, so we can staff the right people. Kaiser Permanente. Dr. Stephen Parody, the national leader of infectious diseases, told CNN.

“Am I still discussing ICU bed capacity? What is the supply chain needed to provide care to patients? Do you have enough medication? Do you have enough monoclonal antibodies?” Parody says. rice field. “There’s still a lot more to do to get to where we want. I think we’ll see this transition in 2022, but in some areas of weak immunity it will be longer. Run. “

Even the flu is unpredictable, and doctors have seen many flus over the years.

“I know there will be cases,” Monteau said. “For influenza, I had a previous flu epidemic, so I usually know how to do it. This is an evolving situation with a whole new pathogen.”