“Zerocovid will not happen”: Experts predict a surge in US cases this winter | Coronavirus

According to scientists, the surge in Covid-19 cases in Europe should warn that coronavirus cases could increase significantly in the United States this winter, especially in the cold regions of the United States.

But despite the potential for more cases, optimism increases as the United States enters its second pandemic winter.

Vaccine protection against hospitalization and death remains high months after vaccination, vaccines for children ages 5 and older can reduce Covid infections, and new antivirals treat Covid-19 It has the potential to make possible illnesses.

Dr. David Daudi, an associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University, said: “What we see in Europe does not mean that we are facing a serious illness and a surge in death. [saw] Here in America “last winter.

Over the past three weeks, new cases have increased in New England and some cold-climate states in the Midwest. However, the vaccine is approximately 85% effective in preventing hospitalization and death.

“Even if the number of incidents increases this winter, it is unlikely that we will be overcrowded. [intensive care units] And a morgue a year ago, “Daudi said.

Immunity to vaccine infections could increase cases, but far fewer would require hospitalization. The vast majority of people who were hospitalized or died in Covid-19 this summer Over 90% in one CDC study, Was not completely vaccinated.

Le Paris Limayer, a quasi-scientist at Johns Hopkins University, said: Vaccine communication expert.

Nevertheless, vaccine distribution is highly uneven across the United States. Only 58.6% of the country is vaccinated, which is currently lower than the vaccination rates of some European countries suffering from an increase in Covid-19 cases. Germany When France..

Dr. Peter Hotez, Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and co-director of the Texas Children’s Hospital, said: Vaccine Development Center.

“Too many unvaccinated, partly too many vaccines. [people]”To thwart” aggressive “delta variants,” Hotez said.

Moreover, even if the effects of Covid-19 diminish this winter, catastrophic loss of life can occur. Another 100,000 people could die between November 2021 and March 2022, according to the country’s most respected Covid-19 long-range forecaster.

“In the Northern Hemisphere, there is increasing evidence that the expected winter surge is beginning to emerge,” said Dr. Christopher JL Murray, chief modeler at the Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) at the University of Washington. weather. “In the United States, the number of cases has stopped and new infectious diseases and hospitalizations have stopped, and they have begun to improve.”

IHME forecastBy March 2022, which Murray described as “optimistic,” the cumulative death toll from a pandemic is projected to be 863,000. Already, more than 765,000 people have died from Covid-19 in the United States.

In the worst-case IHME scenario, more than one million pandemic deaths are expected to occur by March 2022, with hundreds of thousands more.

“Many countries in Western Europe are far ahead of us in the sense that their numbers are growing very rapidly not only in places like the Netherlands and Denmark, but also in Germany and many other countries today. We are out, “says Murray. Almost two-thirds of the world’s 1.9 million new infections occur on the European continent. World Health Organization Said.

Moreover, there are few calls or desires to reinstate social restrictions. Vaccine promises that can reduce Covid-19 infections to local governments across the country Reduce social distance And mask restrictions.

This trend provides new evidence that the vaccine’s ability to prevent Covid-19 infection has diminished over time and the focus of vaccine efficacy has shifted to the steady protection provided against hospitalization and death. It is maintained, if any.

The “fifth wave” and the risk of weakened immunity now require “booster” shots or a third vaccination for anyone who has been vaccinated with the mRNA vaccine developed by Pfizer or Moderna.

The Food and Drug Administration has already approved booster doses for people over the age of 65 or those who work in high-risk environments. Anyone over the age of 18 who has been vaccinated with Johnson & Johnson is eligible for a second vaccination. This is because there is evidence that its effectiveness against serious illnesses can decline over time.

Booster doses are effective in increasing antibody levels, but they are not the most effective way to control Covid-19 infection. According to experts, the best way to control the infection is to vaccinate new people. Experts now widely believe that Covid-19 is endemic and will be endemic over the next few decades, but the severity of the infection can decline over the years.

As many have come up with in the early days of the pandemic, Daudi said the Covid-19 pandemic may never be “finished.” “The point is, when will we be able to reach a socially acceptable level? And I think we may be closer to that point than we imagined.

“‘Zero Covid’ will not happen.”