US hospitals prepare for a potential Omicron surge in January | Coronavirus

As of Saturday, Omicron variants accounted for almost 3% of Covid cases in the United States, up from just 0.4% last week. data From the CDC. Based on the experience of other countries, this variant is expected to continue to rise rapidly and may become dominant within a few weeks.

“These numbers are expected to increase dramatically in the coming weeks,” said Celine Gounder, an infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist at New York University. Bellevue Hospital told reporters Wednesday. She expects the Omicron wave to peak in late January and then fall sometime in February.

CDC at a meeting with state health leaders on Tuesday Presentation 2 scenarioBased on the model, how variants can cause infection in the coming weeks and months. Omicron and Delta cases can peak as soon as January or have a small surge in Omicron in the spring.

It’s unclear whether the Delta or Omicron variants will prevail in the coming months, or whether they will co-exist, Gonder said. Anyway, “In the coming months, we expect more hospitalizations, more deaths, and more strain on the health care system.”

The United States is already on the verge of a delta wave that began before Thanksgiving holidays, and authorities bring explosive growth to situations where vacation trips and rallies such as Christmas and New Year are already tense. I’m afraid that there is a possibility.

Schools across the United States are becoming more common, with some schools closing early or reducing face-to-face activities. In New York, Cornell University reported 903 cases among students this week. Many of them are cases of omicron variants among fully vaccinated people. The school closed early and was virtualized.

Hospitals are already likely to be overwhelmed in some states. In Michigan, intensive care specialists volunteer to work at the ICU for free. Report..

“The healthcare system needs to be planned for possible spikes in hospitalization in the coming weeks,” Gounder said. “When a staff member wants to take a vacation, what is the staffing plan, especially during the vacation?” To do so, delay the selective steps for staff relocation and travel nurses as needed. And may include working with an agency to bring in professionals, she said.

She said public health officials should step up inspections and surveillance across the country.

As Massachusetts and Colorado started, some of the funding from the US Rescue Program could be used to purchase rapid tests at the state and local levels. At Omicron, more frequent testing may be more important than previous variants, Gonder said.

“Omicron’s incubation period is even shorter, 2-3 days. If you want a reasonable chance to catch most of these infections and do something about it, you really need to test every day. there is.”

According to Gounder, 15-30% of all positive tests need to be sequenced to understand which variants are spread across the country. “We have dramatically increased the amount of testing, but we are not where we need it, and it is still a bit spotted nationwide.” Wastewater monitoring said, “What and how fast It can also be a very useful tool for knowing exactly when it’s coming.

Joe Biden’s National Plan to Deal with Omicron Exclude special restrictions Like a stay-at-home order, the majority of states have seen their hometown Your health has been greatly reduced During a pandemic, it makes it more difficult to take emergency measures to slow the spread of the virus.

Continuously increasing vaccination, including initial doses and booster immunization shots, is also important to combat the current and current wave. This requires, for example, a collaborative campaign to educate the general public about why it is important to vaccinate newly qualified children.

Improving ventilation and air filtration is also important, and wearing high-quality masks, Gounder said. “People know about masks, but they may not know that KN-95 and KF-94 are the preferred masks. How do you get them? That they are the right kind How do you know? “

It is still too early to determine if Omicron is more or less deadly than its predecessor. “Pathogenicity really depends on the age of the person we’re talking to and other demographics, but age is probably the most important,” Gounder said. “Early data from South Africa showed that many were from young, relatively healthy college-aged people.”

However, available evidence indicates that the mutant is more contagious and immune-avoidant and is more likely to be transmitted between vaccinated persons and those who have recovered from previous attacks from the virus. increase. For example, in the New York and New Jersey health zones, Omicron is present in 13% of cases.

New research on previous variants found 40% of people who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 are asymptomatic. Young people are more likely to be asymptomatic, and 60% of people under the age of 20 do not develop any symptoms at all, but they can still be infected with the virus.

Almost two years after the outbreak of the coronavirus, people are fed up with the virus, staying at home, suddenly closing schools, and hospitals stopping elective surgery. However, Gounder warned of complacency as the number of cases surged and the healthcare system collapsed.

“This is exhausted,” she said. “For those of us at the forefront, whether it’s health care or public health, this is what we’ll be dealing with over the next few decades. This is our new common sense. Literally, this is me. It’s our life. “