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Record surge in COVID-19 cases nationwide — 1 million new infectious diseases Reported on January 3 — raises the question of whether higher infectivity of omicron variants accelerates the transition from pandemics to endemic.
Moreover, does the surge in the number of people who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 mean that the United States can ultimately achieve a meaningful level of “herd immunity”?
Infectious disease specialists consider these possibilities.
Endemic contingency?
Whether the current surge means a predicted switch to the unique COVID-19, however, is “very difficult to predict,” said Michael Lin of MDMPH. Medscape Medical News.
“This is an open issue,” he said.
Dr. Michael Lin
“At this point, more people are vaccinated or infected, and over time, the infection repeats,” said Lin, a hospital epidemiologist at Rush Medical College in Chicago, Illinois. The symptoms will be milder. “
“It can be a seasonal variety,” he said.
Dr. Eleftherios Venakis
The COVID-19 epidemic is “a realistic possibility, but unfortunately … it doesn’t always have the same predictable pattern as us. influenza“. Dr. Eleftherios Venakis, MD, responsible for infectious diseases at Rhode Island Hospital and Miriam Hospital in Providence and its affiliates, said.
“There are many other viruses that do not follow the same annual pattern,” he said.
Unknowns include how long an individual’s immune response, including T cell defense, will continue.
The transition from a pandemic to endemic is “not a switch of light, and there are no indicators related to the meaning of endemic in COVID-19,” said Syra Madad, DHSc, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard University’s Belfer Science Center. , MSc, MCP said. International affairs in Boston, Massachusetts.
“”Instead, we should continue to focus on reducing infection rates and preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed. “
Hurry to herd immunity?
“The simple answer is yes,” Lin said when asked if the increased contagiousness and increased cases associated with the Omicron surge could bring the United States closer to herd immunity.
“The whole twist in this story is that the virus is mutated enough to escape primary immune defenses, especially antibodies, so even highly vaccinated populations can see breakthrough infections.”
Milonakis was more skeptical about herd immunity.
“It’s very difficult to tackle the concept of herd immunity with a rapidly evolving virus,” he said.
One reason is the number of unknown factors, Mylonakis said. He predicted that a clearer image would appear after the Omicron surge had subsided. Also, because so many people are infected with the Omicron variant, immune defense should peak.
“People will boost immunity. Unfortunately, not everyone because there are people who really can’t mount. [a full immune response] Because of age ImmunosuppressionAnd so on. ” Milonakis, a professor of infectious diseases at Brown University.
“But the majority of the population will be exposed and gain some immunity.”
Madad agreed. “Omicron variants add far more immunity to our population, both by the preferred route by vaccination and by the unvaccinated and infected route to Omicron,” she said. Told.
Dr. Shiramadad
“The route to gain immunity from vaccination is the safest option, with more than one million COVID-19 vaccines already given daily. This is a booster-like first, second. Includes a second dose, and additional doses, “added Madad. He is also the Senior Director of the Special Pathogen Program for the entire system at New York City Health Hospital.
Shorter and more intense surge?
The experience of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom often heralds what is likely to happen in the United States. In the case of Omicron Serge, the peak should last about four weeks, Milonakis said.
In other words, the accelerated diffusion of Omicron can mean that this surge passes faster than the delta.
In addition, some evidence suggests that neutralizing antibodies produced by Omicron infection remain effective against delta variants, thereby reducing the risk of delta reinfection over time.
The ability to neutralize delta variants increased more than 4-fold after a median of 14 days. Preprint survey Posted on December 27th MedRxiv.
At the same time, when participants initiated the antibody response, the neutralization of the Omicron mutant increased 14-fold. The study was conducted on vaccinated and unvaccinated people who were infected with Omicron in South Africa shortly after the onset of symptoms. Not yet peer reviewed.
In a tweet, Medscape Editor-in-Chief Eric Topol, MD, described the results as “especially good news.”
This is especially good news, and nicely explained to boot https://t.co/uuFARiOM2U
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 27, 2021
The current surge may also mean increased protection in the future.
“When we see the other side of this Omicron wave, we get more immunity,” Madad said. “And increased immunity means stronger protection from the next new variant.”
Based on interviews with infectious disease experts Preprint survey Posted in MedRxiv on December 27, 2021.
Damian McNamara It is a staff A journalist based in Miami. He covers a wide range of medical disciplines, including infectious diseases, gastroenterology, and critical care centers. Follow Damian on Twitter: @MedReporter..
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