COVID in the United States after the epidemic

If everyone you know now feels like having a COVID-19, you are not alone. Case numbers are increasing in many parts of the United States, many of which are caused by subvariants of the Omicron variant of coronavirus.

And this wave of new incidents may give a glimpse of what the epidemic stage of COVID-19 will be, with Andy Slavit, former senior adviser to President Biden of COVID-19, and Obama’s Medicaid. Former Head of Medicaid Management.

According to Slavit, the United States is not yet in the endemic stage. As he said, “The best definition of endemic I’ve heard is only when there’s a surprise. It’s gone and it’s predictable.”

“Endemic does not necessarily mean that everyone is safe, and endemic does not necessarily mean that people lose their lives anymore. It simply means that they follow a predictable pattern. A clue as to what a predictable pattern would look like when settled into one. “

Slavit outlines the tools that the United States must handle COVID-19 in the future, and the factors that may change his assessment and shift-to-drift calculations.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

About the tools the United States has that can help people lead a normal life as much as possible

The best news of all is that we have incredible scientific tools, vaccines, boosters and oral remedies. And while none of them are perfect, COVID is increasingly deadly when combined with what our own immune system does and the continuous improvement of these tools, the layered immunity we have. Should not be.

It’s still dangerous, and it’s still dangerous for frail people and people with weakened immunity. But even in that situation, the tools are getting better and better. So what we really want to know is is it even tougher? And will it be more frequent? And are there any vaccines and tools that we will continue to work with? Also, if you need to renew your vaccine once or twice a year, you need to be prepared.

About unknowns that could change his assessment of how close the United States is to the COVID-19 epidemic

Therefore, scientists talk about this concept of drift vs. shift, which means drift virus, with the new Omicron near ladder up of 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, we make even more progress. Indicates that you will continue to watch. And drift is a better scenario than shift. A shift is, in this case, a place to get a whole new Greek letter with completely different mutations and characteristics.

What’s better about drift is that our bodies, generally speaking, are forming better immunity with previous versions that protect us from newer versions. And our vaccine, generally speaking, will be more consistent with what we see next than if we see change.

The big question is whether it will be in drift mode. And how long will it be in drift mode? Or will it return to shift mode where deltas, omicrons, etc. are displayed? No one knows the answer, but many scientists say that the number of major changes is very rare and can be as high as once every 10 years.

Whether reaching the COVID-19 epidemic discourages other precautions, including masks and vaccines

Well, predictability will be good. If you know that COVID-19 occurs in June and December each year, you may not like it, but at least you can take the kind of precautions you need at that time. You don’t have to take them at any other time of the year. What bothers people is that they feel like they are taking precautions during periods when it is not a problem. Therefore, we do not vaccinate against influenza in April, May and June because the risk of influenza is very low.

So, if this is fully understood and predictable, “Hey, every time this happens, these are the precautions we have to take. We need to wear a mask. We need to wear a mask. If your immune system is weak, stay away from this kind of crowd and this kind of situation, but at other times, continue to live your life. Things will be more or less safe. increase.”

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