Health
The second wave may be bad, experts warn of continued vigilance
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts have warned of the horror of the 1918 flu. After the first wave of dangerous infections in spring, cities and people relaxed their efforts to contain the virus, and in the fall and winter the virus returned more and more, killing far more people.
So far, COVID-19 is not working the same way. There is no summer vacation and there is no decline or flow that characterizes the 1918 outbreak. It was like a wildfire surge in one area and dying in another.
But For months, public health officials predicted One comparison will hold: we will have a terrible winter.
Incidents increase as more people spend more time indoors, more tired of public health measures, travel for vacations, and fight conflicting messages from national and local leaders. There is a risk that it may be.
No one really knows what the next few months will bring.But COVID-19 cases are increasing in 39 of the 50 states, so There are some clues about what is likely to happen, good and bad.
Hopeful signs
First, the good news.
Future approach to testingWith so many fast tests that are cheap and readily available, you can change your daily life and do things that people have only dreamed of in the last eight months.
Some universities have already shown that masking and adding regular tests to social distance can keep students safe.The airline has started Test all passengers on some flights – Who doesn’t feel safe and is more likely to travel if they know that their neighbors are not infected?
Many other activities, such as meetings, dentist appointments, gym visits, weddings, etc., will start to feel reasonable again if everyone can be tested along the way.
Of course, testing alone is not enough, as President Donald Trump’s recent infection shows. A The “Superspreader” event apparently happened at the White House After politicians rely solely on testing to protect against infection.
Georgia Institute of Technology professor Pınar Keskinocak confirms that the test, in combination with other public health measures, such as wearing a mask and tracking the interactions of people who test positive, does not infect exposed people. It states that it needs to be done. Chairman of the Operations Research and Management Science Institute, an international association for operations research and analysis professionals.
“It would be very helpful if we could use triple actions together to test tracing and isolation,” Keskinokak said.
Fast, cheap, and easy-to-manage tests are not yet widely available, They should be in the coming months, The first of the 150 million government-funded tests shipped this month, Other rapid inspections that are likely to be available By the end of the year.
At least one vaccine is also likely to get pre-approval by the end of the year, first in doses sufficient to protect health care workers, and then in the most vulnerable older people. Probably next year, Authorities saidBefore a sufficient number of people can be vaccinated to provide widespread protection.
Signs of danger
Bad news: We can’t give up yet.
Samuel Scalpino, an assistant professor at Northeastern University in Boston, said, “If we continue to mitigate measures where COVID-19 cases are high or high, things could get worse in winter. Is expensive. ” Emergency epidemic lab.
For example, Scalpino is concerned that Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker is allowing a large group to eat again at a restaurant. Massachusetts, like many states, has seen an increase in recent incidents, so it’s not time to relax restrictions, Skalpino said.
Schultimeta, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said he was most worried about weakening public alertness. She leads a regular survey of public attitudes towards COVID-19, showing that each is a little more satisfied than last time.
She is also worried about gatherings around the holidays. “Thanksgiving is the mother of all holidays,” she said, as incidents surged with each long weekend this year. She said people could be stuffed into planes and cafeterias and infected with the virus.
Seasonal activities
Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard School of Public Health, said it’s easy to forget one important fact about the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. They are seasonal.
According to Mina, the decline in COVID-19 cases in most of August and September could have been a seasonal benefit.
He is furious that nothing more is being done to avoid what he considers to be a dire future.
“We haven’t been actively doing anything since April to put in place a system to keep the country from spreading this winter,” he said.
Mina said she didn’t know exactly when the virus responsible for COVID-19 would peak. Other coronaviruses surge at different times. But whether it’s late October or late December, he says, “We’ll soon see a sharp escalation, which we expect to cause us to shut things down again.” Said.
“If you think you’ll survive this winter without a seasonal rise, and in some cases a big rise, we’re wrong,” he added.
How do you know that it’s getting worse?
Barry Bloom, an immunologist at Harvard University, said it can be difficult for COVID to know exactly what is happening when it unfolds.
“What you’re looking at right now isn’t really there. You have to be able to predict what’s coming,” he said. It takes at least 2-3 weeks for a person infected with COVID-19 to request hospitalization. Therefore, measurements such as the number of people in need of care indicate people who were infected a few weeks ago, not today.
Bloom said he hopes to expand his existing nationwide influenza monitoring network to investigate all respiratory viruses. Hopefully it will provide an early warning sign of where the infection is starting to increase, he said.
Another early indicator: sewage.The· For example, the University of Arizona Track the campus output for the virus that causes COVID-19.
In New Haven, Connecticut, the genetic material of the virus began to increase for up to two days before a positive COVID-19 test revealed an increase in infection rates. According to this month’s study of Nature Biotechnology.. Sludge data were 1 to 4 days before admission and 6 to 8 days before the person who noticed the infection due to delayed acquisition of test results.
Early information of this kind could help civil servants decide whether to relax or tighten public health restrictions, Bloom said.
So how do you get it done?
The prediction is depressing and public health officials admit. However, it is possible to maintain safety in the event of COVID-19 by taking measures such as masks, social distance, and frequent hand washing. Even eyeglasses can provide some protection to prevent viral particles from entering the body.
So put on that mask and get ready for a long, hugless winter.
“What we see in the coming months will really depend on what people do as individuals, as a family and as a community,” Keskinokak said.
Please contact Karen Weintraub ([email protected]) and Elizabeth Weise ([email protected]).
Health and patient safety coverage at USA TODAY was partially made possible by grants from the Masimo Foundation for Ethics, Innovation and Competition for Healthcare. The Masimo Foundation does not provide editorial input.
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