According to blood tests, 14% of people in one German town are immunized against covid-19

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so Short report Researchers have posted online in German and state that one in seven people is infected. “We are pleased to announce that there is a need for a social sciences lab,” said Nicholas Christakis, a physician and social sciences researcher at Yale University. “They had carnivals and festivals, but only 14% are positive, meaning that there is much to do in areas that have been hit hard in Germany.”

Therefore, the actual infection rate in an area is important. The bigger it is, the less pain will be in the future. After all, if enough people (perhaps two-fourths to three-quarters) have immunity, the virus cannot spread any further. Herd immunity. However, the preliminary figure is “fortunate” because the German town has not yet approached that threshold, and for Christakis it means that the virus still has some damage to do.

The German report is one of the first to study infections in the wider masses, but this type of data suggests that scientists would show no indication of the extent of the pandemic, actual mortality, and no symptoms Required to identify

“ It’s very preliminary, but it’s the kind of research we really need, ” says the U.S. testing 200,000 people, from big cities like New York to small towns in the Midwest. Christakis, who believes it should, says. “This is important to quantify many basic parameters.”

Worldwide, the official number of cases of covid-19 exceeds 1.5 million, but its calculations mainly include those who have been tested for medical assistance. The actual number of infections, including asymptomatic and untested infections, is much higher.

The German report is one of the first blood studies to look for clear antibodies, but more data should be available soon, including that U.S. hospitals are testing their staff . On April 6, Stanford Medicines announced that it had launched its own serum test and started screening doctors and nurses.

“This test will help identify health workers who may be at low risk for treating COVID-19 patients and understand the prevalence of disease in the community,” spokeswoman Lisa Kim said. Said.

Kristakis says the early results of hospital tests have already spread to some experts. “If the healthcare worker’s positive rate is 5%, it probably means that the infection rate is not higher than the infection rate in your city.”

The German study was conducted by virologist Hendrick Streck and several members of a university hospital in Bonn, who gave blood to about 1,000 residents of Gangelt, wiped their throat, and completed the survey. Was.

They found that 2% of the population was actively infected with the coronavirus, with a total of 14% having antibodies. This indicates a previous infection. Because the virus is known to scientists, they say that this group of people “will never get infected with SARS-CoV-2”.

When the virus spreads, a certain percentage of people are sent to hospitals, some of which are sent to ICUs, and some die afterwards. One of the largest unanswered questions is the percentage of people killed by the coronavirus.

The German team estimated the municipality’s mortality rate as a whole 0.37% based on the results of their blood survey. This is significantly lower than what is shown On the dashboard Maintained and maintained by Johns Hopkins, the reported mortality rate in Germany is 2%.

The difference in the calculation depends on how many people are actually infected, but the authors explain that some are not counted because they show asymptomatic or mild symptoms.

Streak and colleagues believe that if the community has previously infected people, it will slow the virus down the area. They also outline processes that can reduce social distance, especially under hygienic measures such as hand washing and quarantine and tracking of the sick. If they avoid the transmission of large amounts of the virus that can occur in hospitals or by close contact with infected people, those who become seriously ill will eventually end the outbreak “ while developing immunity ” I think there is less.

—Includes report by James Temple