Announcement that the new COVID-19 mutant that is widespread in the UK may be more deadly and more contagious. New concerns have also been raised about stocks that have swept several counties.
according to ScienceAlert Initially, according to British experts, the new variant prevailing in the UK is one of the global outbreaks in recent months, with evidence of a 50-70% increase in infectivity. ..
But on Friday, the government said this new stock 30-40 percent more deadlyAlthough it emphasized that the analysis relies on poor data.
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Recent announcements that new COVID-19 variants spreading in the UK may be more deadly and more contagious have raised new concerns about strains that have swept several counties. It aroused concern.
New variants linked to increase the risk of death
In the middle of this month, two separate studies by the London School of Economics and Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group or NERVTAG Of the UK.
Researchers associated data from people who tested positive COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears Mortality data are available and found an increase in mortality risk associated with new strains of approximately 30% in communities, not in hospitals.
Both matched new and old strains, but the group used a minimally different approach, taking into account other variables such as age, location, and hospital management under pressure. did.
Other studies by the University of Exeter and the UK Public Health Services also found more deaths, both of which resulted in even higher numbers.
Based on their assessment, NERVTAG explained the “realistic probability” that transmission of new strains is associated with an increased risk of death compared to previous circulating strains.
The increased loss of communication associated with variants was already alert, as more people infected with COVID-19 were more likely to suffer the risk of serious illness and death.
British variant, more contagious and probably more deadly
Looks like new, according to Professor John Edmunds of the Mathematical Modeling Center for Infectious Diseases at LSHTM British variant It is more contagious and can probably be more deadly. Therefore, the professor added that it is certainly “unfortunately a serious shift in the wrong direction.”
The authors of the study said the addition of data was still questionable and that the situation would become clearer in the coming weeks. Edmonds also said the results were statistically substantive.
However, he explained that while the study used information from people tested in the area, most individuals who died from the virus went directly to the hospital where they were tested. Researchers do not yet have that information about the hospital.
NERVTAG explained that the data gap may be the reason why the study did not find evidence of increased hospitalization for individuals with new strains. This seems to be inconsistent with the consequences of the increased severity of the disease.
He added that the mortality data used in the study covered only 8% of the total number of deaths during the study and therefore the results may not be “representative of the entire population”. It was.
Why variants are more deadly
The authors of the study believe that it could be a set of similar mutations that make it more contagious, even though everyone emphasizes that more research is needed.
One mutation specifically enhances the virus’s ability to colonize human cells more strongly, and NERVTAG director Peter Horby said evidence suggests that it may become more susceptible to infection.
Hobby, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at Oxford University, said that being able to “diffuse faster between cells in the lungs” could increase disease incidence and inflammation, and ultimately the body. Can react. Therefore, “both characteristics of the virus” can be explained.
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