Unlike Spanish flu, trekking from the coronavirus peak is longer

The second and deadliest wave of the 1918 Spanish flu struck towns and cities within weeks. The peak was fast, uncontrolled and catastrophic.

American historian John M. Barry said that the 2004 record of the 1918 pandemic was one of the most detailed and detailed, last week, COVID-19. There were many similarities.

“This is another name for the common flu,” the leader said, “with proper precautions, there is nothing to fear.” “

There were also major differences. “The time it takes for Covid-19 to enter the body can be quite long. The flu from 1918 to 1920 will burn the community in 6 to 10 weeks, but forget about it. It’s not [Covid-19]. “

These are wise words.

At Downing Street press conferences, ministers and their scientific advisors present daily diagrams that track the path of viruses in the UK. Then comes the question: have we peaked? How far are you? And when is it all over?

George Batchelor, co-founder of Edge Health, which models demand for NHS hospital trusts, believes a new case peak has arrived in early April.

“Hospitalization and use of ward beds have also peaked and started to decline. The use of emergency beds may be more or less peaked today. Due to long stays, hospitalization was delayed. And death is probably peaking. Do it in the next couple of days. “

Bachelor, like others, tries to include the necessary warnings carefully.

In the area of ​​social care, where evidence of serious underreporting is plentiful, there are complex and sub-optimal issues, especially related to government data.

Positive patient discharge from NHS hospital beds may prove to have “reseeded” the spread of the virus in nursing homes in the last few weeks.

Dr. Jamie Wilson, a former NHS psychiatrist and chief executive of Home Touch, a senior healthcare provider for the elderly, said that many deaths reported in nursing homes have been reported by NHS Covid since mid-March. I suspect it was due to decanting positive patients to them.

A government document, Covid-19 Hospital Discharge Service Requirements, issued March 19, directs older hospital patients to move to a nursing home or other social welfare facility to unlock hospital capacity. Incredibly, how poor most nursing homes are and given the unique vulnerability of residents, this document states: “Some of these patients, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic, may have Covid-19. If you follow this guidance, you’ll be home.”

Dr. Wilson said: “It is immeasurable to mandate the recovery of a Covid + patient in a nursing home who is at high risk of cross-infection and has a high mortality rate for vulnerable residents. So this means it was preventable. ”

The residential care sector houses vulnerable people in self-contained accommodation. Often in my own home, where I live alone with one caregiver. The council was able to place Covid patients in these safer units rather than in larger homes, but they tend to be more expensive.

The current crisis in British sanatoriums may or may not change the path of epidemics. But either way, the bigger question of how long it takes life to return to normal is unlikely to be solved.

It’s not a quick process, as American historians suggest.

If the Spanish flu curve was a brutal Matterhorn-shaped peak on the stunning summit, the scaling peaks are flatter in squatters-Snowdon or Kilimanjaro.

It’s flatter not only because of the nature of the virus, but because lockdown flattened the summit. The advantage is that an estimated 20,000 and far fewer numbers die compared to 240,000, but it also means longer plateaus and longer and harder trekking backs.

There is also the threat of resurrection. I suppressed the peak of Covid-19, but returning it to normal may cause the virus to bounce back. The challenge is how to safely and quietly go down the other side.