As Colorado’s “blue” levels expand, virus spread is at a critical time

Even though Colorado’s COVID-19 restrictions were relaxed in the past few months, the state continued to enjoy a reduction in cases of new coronaviruses.

“If Colorado stays on track, hospital demand and cases across the state will continue to decline,” said a February 24 report by the Colorado Public Health School.

Optimistically, the report adds: “It will take more than a month for hospital demand and infection rates to reach (low) levels comparable to last summer.”

However, if Coloradans begins to have more face-to-face contact and is vigilant about actions such as wearing masks, the state may be on a more dangerous trajectory.

An important indicator of note is the “effective reproduction number,” which is sometimes written as “Re,” which indicates how rapidly COVID-19 infection is spreading. This is similar to Colorado’s R0 (pronounced “R-naught”), and state officials discussed it early in the pandemic.

The number of reproductions indicates how many people each infected person can spread the virus on average. If the number is less than 1, the infection is reduced.

The latest estimate for Colorado is 0.95, reflecting the spread of the virus in early February. This means that if the general public is not cautious, the proportion of new cases can soon begin to increase again.

According to the report, Coloradans seemed to have more face-to-face contact in early February than in January. Moreover, if the more contagious COVID-19 mutant from the UK spreads rapidly in Colorado, the state could see another peak in hospital demand. According to the report..

As of late February, Colorado has not seen a rapid expansion of the subspecies of concern, according to the state’s public health service. However, the UK variant could begin to take root by mid-March, the report said.

These developments as counties near Denver, such as Jefferson, Park, Clear Creek, and Broomfield, recently entered Level Blue with Colorado’s color-coded limit “dial” to further relax restaurant and other business rules. It began.

Blue can spread quickly

Level Blue, the second lowest notch on the dial since the Denver Metro area entered Level Yellow on February 6, seems likely to be more Metro County in the coming weeks.

The state COVID-19 dial is a set of restrictions that the county must comply with based on the spread of the virus in the area. The county is now level blue when it falls below 100 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 within a week. This is an indicator known as county incidence.

As of February 25, Adams County had 129, Arapaho 115, Douglas 136, Denver 112, and Weld 137. Elbert County seemed to be the earliest ready to move to Level Blue, at a rate of 75.

The level of eligibility for a county generally also depends on the percentage of counties with COVID-19 tests that have returned positive and whether hospitalizations are increasing, stable, or decreasing. To move to a lower level, the county must meet the criteria for all three metrics.

According to a statement from the Colorado Joint Information Center, hospitalizations are considered regionally, so even if hospitalizations are stable or declining locally, the county may move to another level. It’s an office that asks questions to the state public health department.

According to the Bloomfield website, the state moved Bloomfield to Level Blue on February 22nd. Jefferson, Park, and Clear Creek counties entered Level Blue on February 26, according to the state’s COVID-19 website.

At Level Blue, indoor restaurants are allowed up to 50% capacity or 175 people (or up to 225 people using the state’s social metric space calculator), whichever is less. This increases at the yellow level from 50% of capacity or 50 people (or up to 150 people using a calculator), whichever is less. Other companies also expect capacity to grow. Please see this calculator..

See the complete list of restrictions that apply to which level of dial With a complete policy explainer 6 pages.

Change of standard

The dial has been modified with the addition of a new level of red, which came into effect on November 20 in Metro Denver and other parts of the state, banning private gatherings in restaurants and indoor dining, and some types of businesses. Then the capacity limit has become stricter. Red is the second highest level after purple, which is a stay-at-home order. Eventually, more than half of the state’s 64 counties operated in Rebel Red.

Citing the improvement in virus propensity, on December 30, Governor Jared Polis announced that he had instructed the state’s public health department to move the county from red to orange from January 4. system.

under Change of “Dial 2.0” With the Colorado COVID-19 limit on February 6, the state’s public health sector has significantly relaxed the rate limit on how counties can stay on certain levels of dialing. The “Dial 2.0” system has brought Denver Metro County to the yellow level.

Companies have turned to another wrinkle: Colorado 5-Star State Certification ProgramThis allows enterprises to operate with increased capacity according to the enhanced COVID-19 safety protocol. This program allows businesses to comply with one level lower limits on the dial than without authentication.

However, the state on February 5 has a five-star accreditation program for Level Yellow county businesses only if 70% of the 70-year-olds in the state have been vaccinated at least once. , Said it can operate with blue restrictions. It will occur by the end of February, according to a news release from the state’s public health sector.

According to a news release from Arapahoe County, on February 26, Police announced that 70% of Colorado’s population over the age of 70 would be vaccinated between the weekend of February 27-28.

The five-star program could soon become completely irrelevant as it will move to Level Blue in more metropolitan areas, unless the virus prevalence worsens and the county returns to more severe levels. This means that five-star certified businesses will operate at the next lowest level below blue, the green level, or “protecting their neighbors,” unless the county is officially at that level. Because it cannot be done.

Level Green, the lowest level on the dial, is more difficult to transition than other levels.The county must Apply for that level based on criteria Includes hospital bed capacity, personal protective equipment supply, hospitalization, COVID-19 test capacity, contact tracing capabilities and other requirements.

State’I was able to see another peak’

It is unclear whether the Denver metropolitan area will be able to get going as the number of viruses declines as some counties open further.

“How fast will the policies and actions of the past few weeks affect the epidemic process? B.1.1.7 (UK version) How quickly the vaccine spreads in Colorado and is administered, “said a report from the Colorado Public Health School.

As of February 25, the state’s daily trend for new cases appears to have leveled off thereafter. Weeks declining almost steadily.. Public health department daily estimates of infectious diseases appear to have leveled off in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the daily mortality rate of people with COVID-19 showed its first noticeable rise in late January after several weeks of general decline or flattening.

“If the B.1.1.7 variant spreads rapidly in Colorado and grows in a short period of time (increasing face-to-face contact), there could be another peak in hospital demand,” the report said. I will. According to the report, if the number of contacts increases significantly and there is a rapid expansion of variants in Colorado, demand may exceed the capacity of intensive care units and approach the capacity of hospitals.

If the trend worsens, Colorado vaccination distribution is premature and cannot create sufficient community protection to prevent a surge in cases and deaths.

The state’s public health department was asked if they expected the county to return to yellow, orange, and even red levels as more people gathered due to spring weather and Memorial Day.

“Although recent data are encouraging, it’s too early to know how the disease will be transmitted in the spring,” the center said.