Researchers at the University of Washington say COVID-19 can skyrocket seasonally

However, researchers also warn that COVID-19 may “become a persistent, recurrent seasonal disease” due to the emergence of new strains and the overall challenge of achieving herd immunity. Did.

“Not all individuals in the United States are eligible for vaccination, and just because one-quarter of eligible individuals are likely to refuse vaccination, herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Is unlikely to be achieved, “the researchers wrote. “In addition, vaccines do not provide complete immunity to infection, and currently available vaccines are less effective against mutant B.1.351, and perhaps other mutants.”

Researchers explained three reasons why herd immunity is difficult to achieve. The first reason is that the vaccine is less effective in preventing infection from newly emerging variants, especially the first detected B.1.351 variant in South Africa. Identified in King County in February..

Novavax and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are already available Reduced effect For South African varieties, according to Dr. Murray.

further, Parallel research According to a warning published in the scientific journal Nature on March 8, Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may be much less effective against South African variants.

“Mutantically, the virus is moving in a direction that could ultimately lead to an escape from current therapeutic and prophylactic interventions directed at viral spikes,” the newly announced. The author of the study writes. “If the virus continues to spread and more serious mutations accumulate, we may be accused of continuously tracking the evolving SARS-CoV-2, as we have done for the influenza virus for a long time. there is.”

The second challenge IHME researchers have raised to achieve herd immunity is that a sufficient number of people cannot be vaccinated, especially because it is not currently approved for use in children.

Even if a vaccine for children is approved, researchers say that if the new strain becomes predominant, immunity will only reach 37.5% in 2021, which is already hampering deployment and supply difficulties. Estimated to withstand.

The final reason for herd immunity to be difficult is an unknown factor in whether past infections provide protection against infections from new variants.

Murray said cross-variant immunity is the most important issue in the long-term future of COVID-19.

“If B.1.351 becomes widespread, vaccine-derived immunity is likely to be much lower than the level required to reach herd immunity by the winter of the Northern Hemisphere 2021-2022,” the study said. They wrote. “Winter spikes may become the norm if new variants continue to emerge.”

If new variants surge in the coming winter of 2021 to 2022, mortality and hospitalization rates will decline only if the same actions of masks, social distance, and lack of large rallies are all continued. Expected. To “Potential Sustainable Impact of Fatigue and Pandemics on the Economy”.

“If the decline in summer allows people to stop paying attention, stop wearing masks, and return to their pre-COVID lifestyle, we can imagine a more vulnerable winter,” Murray said. Said. “Now we can build a scenario with a third wave. I don’t think this is as bad as we’ve seen, but it can still be quite a third wave.”

This advises researchers in the community and healthcare system to prepare for future seasonal surges by not only investing in genomic sequencing to capture future strains, but also expanding testing and tracking efforts. That’s why.

Some of that work has already begun at the national level. In February, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that it would invest $ 200 million. Efforts for Genome Sequencing Track new variants of the coronavirus.

However, in addition to these massive changes in public health reactions, Murray has personal winter behaviors for high-risk individuals, such as avoiding assembly settings and wearing masks. I advised that I might need to fix it.

“Looking at next winter … what do some people do?” Some say, “I’m willing to accept risks like the seasonal flu,” or a group of people, especially older people. “Wear a mask this winter, avoid social interaction, and don’t return to normal during the winter,” Murray said. “And we end up in a world that is very different from the past.”