American herd immunity may be an elusive goal

Monday, May 3, 2021 (HealthDay News)-Although more than half of American adults take at least one dose Coronavirus vaccine, Many scientists and public health professionals are now Herd immunity It cannot be reached in the near future.

Instead, the virus is likely to be a manageable threat that will spread in the United States over the next few years, causing hospitalizations and deaths, but in far fewer numbers. New York Times report.

How small is the number of people to be vaccinated and Coronavirus Evolve. The virus is changing rapidly, new variants spread easily, and vaccination is too slow to establish herd immunity as quickly as some experts expected.

“It’s unlikely that the virus will go away,” said Rustom Antia, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University in Atlanta. Times.. “But I want to do everything I can to make sure I can get a mild infection.”

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Vaccine skeptics may use the latest ideas from public health experts to avoid vaccination, as herd immunity convinced many Americans that it was worth vaccination. Maybe. Times OK. But vaccination remains the key to turning the virus into a tame threat, experts said.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, Chief Medical Adviser of the Biden Administration, acknowledged the change in thinking.

“People were confused and thought that whatever the number, they would never reduce the infection until they reached this mysterious level of herd immunity,” he said. Times.. “That’s why we stopped using herd immunity in the classical sense. What I’m saying is forget it for a moment. If you vaccinate enough people, you’ll get infected. Will decrease. “

Early on, herd immunity was estimated to be about 60% to 70% of the population. Most experts, including Fauci, believed that the United States could reach that threshold once the vaccine became available.

However, the surge in vaccine distribution this spring raised the threshold target, primarily due to the emergence of more contagious variants of the virus. Called B.1.1.7, which is currently prevalent in the United States, the first major variant found in the United Kingdom is about 60% more infectious.

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Experts currently estimate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If more highly contagious variants occur, or if scientists discover that immunized people can still infect the virus, the estimated threshold will rise again. Times report.

Meanwhile, polls show that about 30 percent of the US population is still reluctant to vaccinate. That number is expected to improve, but probably not enough.The most important thing right now is the rate of one hospitalization and death Pandemic Experts believe that the restrictions will be relaxed.

“At least what we want to do is reach the point where there are really sporadic little flare-ups,” said Carl Bergstrom, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Washington, Seattle. Times.. “It will be a very wise goal in this country where we have a good vaccine and the ability to deliver it.”

Vaccination rates for police officers remain low

Police officers were one of the first front-line workers to get the coronavirus vaccine, but their vaccination coverage is lower or about the same as the average person, from some of the country’s largest law enforcement agencies. New data shows.

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Vaccine hesitation among police also means that they can spread the virus to vulnerable people with whom they interact.

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Private universities make up the majority of schools that require vaccination, but some public universities are also moving to request shots. Times Said.

Students and employees at the University of Maryland need to be vaccinated before returning to campus in the fall, Prime Minister Jay Perman said. The newspaper said it was particularly concerned about the B.1.1.7 mutant, which it said was highly contagious in its release last week.

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“The more infectious and more harmful variants we think are what we are preparing and may be circulating on our campus will come in the fall.” Mr. Perman said.

At least 20 universities, including those in California’s public university system, said injections would be needed once the US Food and Drug Administration had fully approved the three coronavirus vaccines currently approved for emergency use in the United States. Times report.

Many schools that do not require vaccination offer incentives to encourage students to take their shots instead. Both Baylor University in Texas and Calvin University in Michigan have announced that vaccinated students can skip the mandatory COVID-19 test, the newspaper said.

The University of Wyoming offers vaccinated students and staff the opportunity to participate in weekly draws for prizes such as soccer and basketball game tickets and Apple products. Times report. Fully vaccinated employees are eligible for personal holidays.

As of Monday, more than 147 million Americans received the first shot and 104.7 million received the second shot. Data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show. Meanwhile, according to Johns Hopkins University, the number of cases of coronavirus in the United States exceeded 32.4 million on Monday, and the death toll exceeded 577,000. By Monday, approximately 153 million cases were reported worldwide and more than 3.2 million people died from COVID-19.

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For more information

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention New coronavirus..

Source: The New York Times; The Washington Post; CNN