Health
The Covid model used to delay Freedom Day was “based on old data.”
Increasing number of cases in the majority of UK municipalities (Image: AFP via Getty Images)
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Covid modeling of mortality, created before the final mitigation of the blockage curb was delayed, is reported to have been based on outdated information.
Earlier this week, the Prime Minister announced that the end of the blockade would be postponed until July 19 after the rapid spread of Delta variants.
New modeling by the SAGE subgroup Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling (SPI-M) reveals how high the risk of discarding all social distances is.
One of the worst scenarios for experts was that hospitalization reached near the peak of the first wave. This is the case when there are currently less than 200 new UK patients per day, compared to more than 3,000 new UK patients per day.
Boris Johnson announced a postponement of the blockade earlier this week
(Image: Jonathan Backmaster)
The Daily Telegraph reports that in the worst-case scenario, another 203,824 people will die by June next year, with a more conservative estimate of more than 50,000.
The publication claims that the model was based on an “obsolete” estimate of vaccine efficacy. It is said to have assumed that few people are protected by jabs.
Modelers say AstraZeneca’s jab worked on a 77-87 percent reduction in hospitalization after two doses, while the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggested 81-90 percent. And at the University of Warwick it’s between 86 and 95 percent.
Studies have shown that AstraZeneca jabs are 92% effective with two doses.
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The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is said to be 96% effective against hospitalization with the Delta variant after two doses.
The jab was said to have been “underestimated by the group,” with one estimating up to 90 percent and another estimating 95 percent.
Dr. Susan Hopkins, Deputy Director of the National Infection Services of the British Public Health Services, was reported to have said the minister had known the information since Friday.
An official spokesman for the prime minister said earlier that opening the economy as planned may mean “a surge in hospitalizations that puts unsustainable pressure on the NHS.”
An official spokesman for the Prime Minister said the extension of the UK blockade would mean “preventing the deaths of thousands” because it gives healthcare workers time to catch more people quickly. ..
The prime minister said at a press conference on Downing Street on Monday that the average number of people admitted to hospitals in the UK increased by 50% each week and 61% in the northwest, adding that the minister was afraid of it. The shape of what comes. “
“Because we know the ruthless logic of exponential growth, even if the link between infection and hospitalization is weakened, it is not broken,” he said.
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