British heat record on 40C day completely erased shocks scientists | climate crisis

Climate scientists expressed their shock at Britain’s surprising temperature record on Tuesday, with heat exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for the first time ever.

Researchers are also increasingly concerned that Europe’s extreme heatwaves are occurring faster than models suggest, so the continent’s climate crisis could be far more severe than feared.

Temperature records are usually broken by 1 degree increments, but the 40.2C recorded at Heathrow Airport is 1.5C higher than the previous record of 38.7C recorded at Cambridge in 2019.

In the UK, on ​​average over the past decade, heatwaves have killed about 2,000 people per year and caused widespread disruption to work, school and travel. Scientists say recent records show that reducing carbon emissions and quickly upgrading Britain’s overheated homes and buildings are more urgent than ever.

“It is shocking that we reached this temperature today in 2022, breaking the previous record set only in 2019,” said Professor Peter Stott of the National Weather Service.

Elementary school students try to stay cool. photo: twitter

According to his study in 2020, the UK could reach 40 degrees Celsius due to global warming. But we calculated it with a relatively low probability of 1 in 100, Stott told The Guardian. Breaking 40C today is very worrying. We’ve never seen anything like this in the UK, and the risk of such extreme heat could be much greater than previous calculations have shown.

Dr. Nikos Christidis, who also participated in the 2020 study, said the risk is definitely increasing rapidly.

A role for human-caused global warming seems clear, as scientists have estimated that there is less than 0.1% chance of over 40 degrees Celsius in the UK. Dr Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said the 40C would be extremely rare or nearly impossible without human-induced climate change.

Otto added: Although still rare, the 40C is now a British summer reality.

She said climate change is driving this heatwave just as it is driving all heatwaves now. Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil are making heat waves hotter, longer lasting and more frequent.

Professor Hannah Cloke of the University of Reading said: “The UK temperature record has not only been broken, it has been completely erased.”

Even as a climate scientist studying this, this is terrifying.

I didn’t expect to see this [40C] In my career, Professor Stephen Belcher of the Met Office said:

Video of the World Meteorological Organization’s head using a tie to explain global warming

Climate scientists are concerned that the rise in extreme weather could happen sooner than expected. In Europe, climate models underestimate changes in extreme heat compared to observations, Otto said. There are still problems with climate models that we don’t quite understand yet.

Michael Mann, a professor at Pennsylvania State University in the US, said his research found that climate models did not adequately link many extreme summer weather events with climate change.

This is due to a process that is not captured well in the model but is running in the real world. “For example, we have been seeing the effects of warming on the behavior of the summer jet stream, which gives rise to extreme heat waves, floods, droughts and wildfires.” This suggests that the model underestimates the potential for future increases in various types of extreme events.

Tourists look at the black smoke plumes above the hills of Pillar from a wildfire in southwest France on Monday. Photo: Olivier Maurin/AFP/Getty Images

Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany says there is an explanation for the extreme heatwaves occurring after the global average warming is just over 1C. First, land is heating up much faster than the oceans, which cover 70% of the Earth and dominate the global average.

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Second, changing weather patterns can lead to greater extremes in temperature, he said. Europe is a heatwave hotspot, rising three to four times faster than the rest of the northern mid-latitudes. reason? Changes in the jet stream. Third, the deceleration of the major Atlantic currents tends to increase summer heat and drought in Europe.

While the 40C broke the UK benchmark, researchers in continental Europe, affected by the heat wave, are now considering the 50C. In France, the possibility of reaching 50C in the next few decades cannot be ruled out, said Professor Robert Vautard of the Sorbonne. For France, Spain and many other countries, the current historical record is within 5 degrees of 50 degrees Celsius, and we know that such a leap is possible.

Otto said climate action remains important. [40C in the UK] What becomes very common or remains relatively rare is in our hands and will depend on when and at what global average temperature net zero degrees is reached. Heatwaves will continue to worsen until greenhouse gas emissions are stopped.

It is also up to us whether all future heatwaves will continue to be extremely lethal and devastating, she said. We have institutions to educate us on how to make us less vulnerable and redesign and keep our cities, homes, schools and hospitals safe.

Drone footage shows Dartford wetlands burned down by wildfires.

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