A US-Saudi deal without Israel is an illusion – Foreign Policy

A big part of US President Joe Biden's transformative plan for the Middle East, which sounds more like a Hail Mary than an actual plan, involves seeing Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations. To achieve this, Washington should provide Riyadh with, among other things, a formal defense pact. Israel, in accordance with Saudi wishes, should take irrevocable steps to contribute to the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

A big part of US President Joe Biden's transformative plan for the Middle East, which sounds more like a Hail Mary than an actual plan, involves seeing Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations. To achieve this, Washington should provide Riyadh with, among other things, a formal defense pact. Israel, in accordance with Saudi wishes, should take irrevocable steps to contribute to the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

With a prime minister openly opposed to such an endgame, Israel is unlikely to fulfill its end of this bargain any time soon. The current war against Hamas is not even over. He has threatened to invade Rafah, in southern Gaza, to attack what remains of the militant groups' fighting capacity, an outcome that would prolong this war, sabotage any hope of a ceasefire and hostage exchange, and would exacerbate the already enormous suffering of the Palestinians. people.

When it comes to the creation of a Palestinian state, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rarely missed an opportunity to voice his opposition. As always, he is focused solely on his political survival by appeasing an Israeli public angry about an ongoing war, knowing that when the shooting stops, they will punish him for failing to prevent the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Except that Israeli victory on the battlefield is proving increasingly elusive due to the persistence of Hamas, the challenges of urban combat and growing international pressure on Israel to end its military operations. .

Yet although Israel stands in the way of a trilateral agreement, it appears that the United States and Saudi Arabia have made great progress on their own. There is now talk of a Plan B that could exclude Israel, the terms of which, according to some enthusiastic press reports, include an American defense pact, American assistance in the development of Saudi civilian nuclear energy and systematic collaboration in the areas artificial intelligence and other important technologies. . Such a plan B seems promising at first glance, but on closer inspection it is doomed to failure.

We have worked together intensively over the past few months, US Secretary of State Antony Blinkens said this week while in Saudi Arabia. The work that Saudi Arabia and the United States have done together with respect to our own agreements, I think, is potentially close to being completed. Echoing his American counterpart, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhansaidan, the agreement was very, very close.

It is perfectly understandable why Washington and Riyadh want to move forward without Israel. After all, what would happen if Israel never agreed to a two-state solution? Yet a bilateral US-Saudi deal, at least as currently described, simply will not work. The reason is simple: for Riyadh to obtain a formal defense pact from Washington, Congress would have to agree to ratify it, and American lawmakers, particularly Republicans, will only lift a finger if the question of Israeli normalization is on the table.

Indeed, the main reason there is bipartisan consensus on this mega-deal with Saudi Arabia, rightly or wrongly, is that Israel would get the ultimate prize of Saudi recognition. Take that away, and it all falls apart, despite other Saudi goals, including Riyadh distancing itself from China, cooperating on energy production, and jointly investing in technologies important to the United States.

Supporters of a bilateral deal might wonder: What if Biden used his executive powers and struck a defense deal with Saudi Arabia without having it ratified by Congress? It certainly could, and it would be similar to the security agreement the United States signed last September with Bahrain, called the Comprehensive Security, Integration and Prosperity Agreement. The United States could also offer the kingdom the status of a major non-NATO ally (from which Bahrain already benefits), accelerate American arms shipments and strengthen cooperation in a range of defense and security areas. .

However, this is not what Saudi Arabia wants, or at least what it has said it wants. Riyadh has rightly insisted on a formal defense pact with the United States, that is, an alliance treaty similar to the one Washington has concluded with Japan, South Korea or the Philippines , as it would consolidate, formalize and legalize the United States' security commitment to the kingdom. The Saudis definitely want something more ambitious than what Bahrain got. They also want it written down and codified into law, because they understand that a new U.S. administration, or simply a change in attitude by a sitting president, could easily end the deal.

Saudi Arabia also worries about how Iran, its main adversary, might view a defense deal with the United States that is not strong enough. For Riyadh to decide to openly strengthen its security cooperation with Washington, and thereby potentially alienate and jeopardize its normalization agreement with Iran, the reward would have to be worth the risk. In other words, Saudi Arabia is seeking a defense pact with the United States that is credible enough in the eyes of its friends and foes.

Such credibility requires political commitment and military power. The first would unequivocally signal to Riyadh, and especially Tehran, that the United States would come to the aid of the kingdom in the event of an attack, as was the case by Iran in September 2019. The second would provide the necessary measures. military capabilities and consultative mechanisms to support the defense pact.

Saudi Arabia does not want to find itself in the worst of all worlds: slightly improving its security relations with the United States while incurring the wrath of Iran. Riyadh's interest in a defense pact with Washington is to prevent war with Iran or to defend against Iranian aggression should it occur again. And the only way to get that from the United States is to guarantee an American security commitment.

Which brings us back to Congress and its crucial role. Without Saudi normalization with Israel, Congress is unlikely to approve a formal defense pact with the kingdom. And without that, Saudi Arabia might decide it's better to stay put than risk provoking Iran.

As long as Netanyahu and his government, the most right-wing in Israel's history, are in power, it is difficult to imagine how this three-way deal, at least as it was conceived and announced, could come to fruition. .

The irony is that by normalizing with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu could achieve the kind of strategic accomplishment he so desperately needs right now: recognition by the Middle East's largest economy and leader of the Muslim world , something the Israeli public would celebrate. But he presides over an Israeli cabinet whose views on the Palestinian question are even more extreme than his own and stand in the way of any such opportunity with the Saudis.

It is possible that Riyadh and Washington could strike a more limited deal and increase cooperation on issues beyond defense, including AI, semiconductors, autonomous systems and perhaps civilian nuclear energy. But it would not be the transformative deal that Biden hopes to sell to the American public, nor the one that Saudi Arabia actually covets. Nor would it require the Saudis to overtly restrict their cooperation with China, a difficult proposition given the deep economic ties between the two countries. It would be just another minimalist bilateral agreement, without any of the strategic effects or benefits sought by both sides.

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