Heading into the 2024 US presidential election: Memorial Day update

The United States is nearly five months removed from a presidential election that continues to defy historical norms. President Joe Biden enjoys the lowest level of support of any incumbent president in modern history. His opponent, former President Donald Trump, is currently on trial in New York on 34 charges. Preview

Despite the unprecedented factors that shaped the presidential election, as well as volatility at home and abroad, the position in the race between the two candidates has remained relatively stable over the past six months, with Trump maintaining a lead narrow but consistent at the national level. More importantly, in pursuit of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, Trump also holds a clear lead in four of the six battleground states that will likely determine the outcome in November, according to the Cook Political Report.

In Congress, Republicans are favored to take control of the Senate. Democrats all but lost West Virginia following Sen. Joe Manchin's decision not to run again, and they are defending seven additional seats that are currently considered competitive by Cook Political Report. None of the Republican Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 are considered under threat. Control of the House is considered a toss-up, with Republicans defending 22 competitive seats and Democrats defending 24 competitive seats.

The results of this election have enormous policy and regulatory implications. Emboldened by his re-election, Biden would likely use executive action to expand his first-term policy victories, particularly in areas like energy, financial services and healthcare. Leaders should expect that in a second term, Biden and his team will redouble efforts to expand the nation's infrastructure and green manufacturing capabilities, as called for in the Inflation Reduction Act and other key policies.

If Trump returned to the White House, he would likely seek to dismantle many of Biden's signature achievements while preserving protectionist policies such as tariffs on goods from China and efforts to promote more manufacturing. American and relocation. Trump would likely try to preserve key elements of his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is set to expire in 2025. His administration would also likely seek to deregulate several sectors and advance efforts to eliminate tax protections. public service for some members of the federal bureaucracy.

Despite what is at stake, this is the first presidential election in contemporary American politics that is more directly about the past than the future. As a result, each candidate does not campaign on the basis of their proposals, but rather on questioning their background. This focus will be the defining element of every campaign in the months leading up to election day.

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