What the EU Really Thinks About Britain Now

Our Position in Europe series. Image by TeroVesalainen via Wikimedia Commons (CC0)

The first Monday after the Brexit referendum was probably the height of my popularity in Brussels as the UK representative on the EU working group. Contacts from all over the continent were flocking in, wondering what would happen next, as if I had a clue.

Fast forward to two weeks before our recent general election, and in a grand conference room in an EU building, a well-connected civil servant is questioning me about the upcoming British elections, from think tanks in London and Brussels. Once again, the questioner is worried about future developments.

Comparing these two meetings with the UK debate shows that the EU still has an interest in the UK, but the situation is not entirely mutually beneficial. One of the few things that Brexit and Remain supporters agree on is that Brussels has moved on.

A very different take

In fact, there are still many in Brussels who want to strengthen their relationship with the UK. But this can only happen in a British way, and the British debate has hardly acknowledged this. Partly because of its size, but mainly because the EU has a model for third-country engagement that fits its own structure.

There is no single EU view. An unscrupulous journalist can usually find anyone to quote whom he wants, and some of them will confirm.

But there will be a broad EU consensus. Brussels’ love of good gossip is a key part of this, and part of how the institution functions. If you look for contacts far from the formal discussion topics, you will hear very different opinions. For example, when most media reported that member states were divided over whether to extend the generous rules of origin for electric cars in the trade and cooperation agreement, I was told that the real difference of opinion was over the legal form of the extension. Perhaps both are true to some extent.

That somewhat arcane argument goes to the heart of Britain’s challenge in Brussels. The Commission wants to tell third countries that they are entirely in the hands of their member states, but in practice it doesn’t work that way. They shape their differing views into something roughly coherent. Where credit is due, the British civil servants who negotiated the Windsor Framework seem to have understood this. We haven’t heard much specifically about France or Germany in that context.

Area for agreement

The EU's public statements should be understood in the same context. In the absence of a formal mandate from a Member State, the Commission will generally say that it is willing to listen to third countries. In private, it will be more active in talking about what is possible, and in fact, this will be a major dialogue not only with governments but also with business representatives, academia, think tanks, etc.

This openness gives a pretty good idea of ​​what is negotiable. It’s not rocket science, but it’s the skilled Brussels people who understand the possible landing spots for an agreement.

However, it must be understood that Brussels is still cautious about formal British contacts. We have too often been seen as having breached trust and convention in negotiations, and some of the trauma still remains. Likewise, there is a fundamental concern that Britain still wants open trade without the basis for a single market.

Consider, for example, the veterinary agreement aimed at reducing or eliminating censorship on British agricultural and food exports. The Westminster view is that the barriers will be lowered depending on what text negotiators agree on, how much Britain can do to meet the necessary regulations, and how protectionist France is.

In contrast, one expert with considerable experience in the field said the EU does not trust food coming from the UK because of insufficient checks on imports and domestic production, and that the barriers will not be lowered until a few specific individuals in the Commission voice a different opinion, which experience from other countries suggests will not come easily.

Urgency

Member states have little influence in the process, including Germany, Britain’s eternal hope. In fact, when I talk to German officials, journalists and think tanks, I mostly hear a tone of disappointment that they don’t really understand what we’ve been doing for the past eight years. Again, contrary to popular belief, I think the French counterparts are more understanding.

European security has played a part in this situation. Poland and the Baltic states have long seen Britain as an essential player, and Germany increasingly agrees. Another thing that is different is the sense of urgency to do more now. That is why there is a security agreement and an invitation to the Foreign Affairs Committee meeting in October (which David Ramey accepted). More will flow from there.

Higher priority, but again not the whole picture. When I talk to people in Brussels, they have long been interested in hearing more about our plans for a number of policy areas in the UK. Inevitably, there is gossip, but there is also a respect for our bureaucracy, and they wonder what they can learn.

Previous British administrations have blocked the opportunities presented by these interests by treating negotiations as a secret exercise in outmaneuvering the other side. The minor thaw under Sunnack has allowed some cooperation to slip under the radar.

Room for improvement

We aim to rebuild bridges between young Europeans on both sides of the Channel.

Today we proposed to the @EUCouncil to start negotiations with the UK on youth mobility.

This will make it easier for young citizens to study, work and live.

more

— European Commission (@EU_Commission) April 18, 2024

There is a clear opportunity. Whatever the priorities, there is enough interest to talk about much more, and a new or expanded agreement could emerge from it. Not the myth of a major deal in the past or a renegotiation through a TCA review, but something that fits the world's second-largest trade flow.

Don’t expect smooth sailing though, as the committee felt that the response from Labour and the Conservatives to their calls for a youth mobility mandate showed that they had not really learned anything. Our criticism (based on the timing before the election and some extremist demands) was fair to some extent, but it ignored the point that the UK was unwilling to tell the EU what its interests were.

It is overwhelmingly in the UK's interest to pursue improved EU relations as much as possible. Small changes, while not economically transformative, would help the stability of Northern Ireland, which is as important as individual businesses. In any case, such stability is needed as a first step to something more important, such as re-joining.

It is a big question whether Britain will learn to listen to Brussels. Many in the EU are skeptical and expect only bumpy improvements in the coming years. Perhaps it is fair. But even if the institutional functioning sometimes looks strange, there is still a real chance.

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