Who is trying to disrupt this and what do they want?

Reuters

The Trump campaign recently claimed it was hacked by Iran

The recent statement by Donald Trump's campaign that its data was hacked by Iran is a sign that foreign interference could become a major issue in this year's US elections.

The outcome of the election will have major repercussions around the world, meaning that many countries have an interest in trying to interfere, either to support a particular candidate or simply to destabilize America.

The nature of open democracy and American media, coupled with new forms of technology, provides ample opportunity to try to shape the end result.

“Our adversaries view American elections as opportunities for influence, to try to undermine confidence in our democracy, to try to swing the balance,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said last month. “We’re clear on that. And we’re doing a lot to oppose it.”

So who might try to interfere? Three countries are most often cited: Iran, Russia and China.

Iran

Iran is becoming increasingly aggressive in its influence efforts abroad, seeking to stir up discord and undermine trust in our democratic institutions, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said in July.

The Trump campaign claims it was hacked by Iran, although it has not been confirmed whether an offer of stolen campaign documents to media outlets is definitively linked to it.

Microsoft recently said it had seen “significant emerging influence activity” from groups linked to Iran, and Google said Iranian hackers targeted Biden’s campaign (before he dropped out of the race) as well as Donald Trump’s.

Iranians are believed to be more likely to oppose a return of Trump to the White House.

He and his advisers are seen as more hawkish in their rhetoric as well as in their past actions, which include withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.

On social media, Iran has also been accused of stoking tensions around Gaza.

Russia

According to the most recent assessment by US intelligence agencies, Russia remains the main threat to US elections.

But so far, this country has been less visible than Iran.

Russia has a long history of using what it calls “active measures” to influence public opinion, dating back to the Cold War era.

In 2016, the United States was caught off guard by a Russian operation in which emails from the Democratic Party and members of Hillary Clinton's campaign were hacked and then leaked.

More information on the US elections

Russian hackers, likely from both the SVR foreign intelligence agency and the GRU military intelligence agency, are among the most skilled and may attempt to compromise accounts.

Russian social media campaigns have also evolved since 2016, when fake profiles were used to organize real-world protests against Hillary Clinton during the campaign. Moscow is reportedly outsourcing some of its efforts to commercial firms in order to differentiate itself and seek more effective ways to reach its audience.

If Moscow does get involved, security analysts say it will most likely be in Trump's favor.

The former president has been friendlier toward Moscow and more critical of the NATO defense alliance. Vladimir Putin recently denied supporting Trump, but even that was seen as a diversionary tactic.

China

China is an unknown quantity when it comes to interference.

Since 2008, the organization has hacked into U.S. election campaigns to gather intelligence. But it tends to be less active than the other two in trying to influence a particular outcome. U.S. intelligence currently assesses that it “probably does not intend to influence the outcome” of the election.

Confidence is also lower about who China's preferred candidate is if it decides to do something.

Donald Trump may be unpredictable and confrontational with Beijing, but he is less likely to pursue the Biden administration's policy of building a network of alliances, which worries Beijing.

Trump or Biden: Will China's Communist Party Elite Reveal Who They Support?

Beijing may also be wary of US hostility at this stage by appearing to interfere, which does not worry Iran or Russia.

But China has been accused of trying to target candidates at the local or congressional level because of their track record or positions on issues that matter to it. In the 2022 midterm elections, it was accused of doing so in a handful of races involving both Democrats and Republicans.

All three countries have consistently denied any interference in the elections.

Challenges for the United States

In 2016, the information hacked by Russia received widespread media coverage. But that seems to have changed today, with media outlets becoming more cautious about sharing the stolen data.

And more and more people today are looking to influence campaigns and improve their cybersecurity. But despite this, the challenge has evolved.

One difficulty is that it can be harder to distinguish foreign interference from domestic freedom of expression. Some countries may use Americans to spread their messages. Sometimes these Americans will be willing collaborators, but sometimes they will be unwitting, perhaps even hired to write for websites that they do not know are working for Moscow or someone else.

And there are new concerns because there has been a dramatic shift in the technology available to those seeking to interfere through artificial intelligence and deepfakes.

These tools could make it possible to approach individuals in a more personalized way on social networks and create more convincing fake content. This could lead people to doubt what is real and what is not.

However, in other elections around the world this year, the general consensus is that these techniques have not been deployed to the extent that some feared.

But the US election is by far the most important globally (and likely a close race), meaning new techniques could be deployed for the first time. And given the current political climate, it’s more combustible and polarized than in the past.

Another risk is that the very claim of foreign interference could be politicized and used to cast doubt on the outcome of an election.

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